Filing Flows › Tradeweb Markets (TW) › Takeover & LBO
Is Tradeweb Markets (TW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($159.30 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $159.30 | today's $122.54 plus 30% |
| × shares | 210.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $33.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $2.1B | |
| + Other claims | $712M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $32.2B | 25.7× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $644M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $26.0B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $1.4B | $527M | $634M | $6.2B |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $1.4B | $478M | $745M | $5.5B |
| Year 3 | $2.8B | $1.5B | $421M | $855M | $4.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.9B | $1.6B | $356M | $959M | $3.7B |
| Year 5 | $3.0B | $1.6B | $282M | $1.1B | $2.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $31.9B | |
| − Debt left | $2.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $29.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.13× | on $26.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $122.54.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $134.79 | 7.2% |
| 20% | $147.05 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $159.30 | 2.4% |
| 40% | $171.56 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $183.81 | −1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 54.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $245M | |
| Capital spending | $46.6M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $2.1B | |
| Share price | $122.54 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tradeweb Markets would cost about $140.80 a share, $29.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $134.18 | $28.3B |
| Median | 14.9% | $140.80 | $29.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $163.71 | $34.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Tradeweb Markets' latest quarter
Tradeweb Markets, Q3 2026: revenue $585M (+15% year over year), operating margin 43.4%, net earnings $197M, operating cash flow $347M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Tradeweb Markets being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Tradeweb Markets?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($159.30 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Tradeweb Markets cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tradeweb Markets would cost about $140.80 a share, $29.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.