Filing Flows › Titan International (TWI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Titan International (TWI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.05 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $2.20 a share (−53% against today's $4.65). Historically 6.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.27× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $6.05 | today's $4.65 plus 30% |
| × shares | 64.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $390M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $567M | |
| − Cash | $173M | |
| + Other claims | $7.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $792M | 10.7× EBITDA of $73.9M |
| Fees | $15.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $407M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $401M | 50% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $79.8M | $31.1M | −$21.3M | $428M |
| Year 2 | $2.4B | $85.2M | $32.7M | −$19.7M | $447M |
| Year 3 | $2.5B | $89.9M | $34.2M | −$17.6M | $465M |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $93.7M | $35.6M | −$15.3M | $480M |
| Year 5 | $2.7B | $96.5M | $36.8M | −$12.7M | $493M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $917M | |
| − Debt left | $493M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $423M | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $401M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $4.65; the IRR reaches 20% at $2.20 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $5.12 | 4.5% |
| 20% | $5.58 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $6.05 | 1.1% |
| 40% | $6.51 | −0.4% |
| 50% | $6.98 | −1.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $73.9M | 3.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $67.9M | |
| Capital spending | $49.5M | |
| Debt | $567M | |
| Cash | $173M | |
| Share price | $4.65 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Titan International would cost about $6.16 a share, $397M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $5.58 | $360M |
| Median | 32.5% | $6.16 | $397M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $7.06 | $455M |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.27× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Titan International's latest quarter
Titan International, Q3 2026: revenue $335M (-6% year over year), operating margin -0.3%, net loss $42.5M, operating cash flow $17.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Titan International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Titan International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.05 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $2.20 a share (−53% against today's $4.65).
What would a takeover of Titan International cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Titan International would cost about $6.16 a share, $397M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.