Filing Flows › Twilio (TWLO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Twilio (TWLO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($263.95 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $263.95 | today's $203.04 plus 30% |
| × shares | 161.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $42.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $994M | |
| − Cash | $2.9B | |
| = Enterprise value | $40.8B | 76.0× EBITDA of $537M |
| Fees | $816M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $38.7B | 93% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.3B | $580M | $226M | $283M | $2.7B |
| Year 2 | $6.7B | $619M | $204M | $341M | $2.3B |
| Year 3 | $7.1B | $653M | $178M | $401M | $1.9B |
| Year 4 | $7.4B | $680M | $147M | $460M | $1.5B |
| Year 5 | $7.6B | $701M | $112M | $518M | $948M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 57.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $40.4B | |
| − Debt left | $948M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $39.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.02× | on $38.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $203.04.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $223.34 | 4.3% |
| 20% | $243.65 | 2.2% |
| 30% | $263.95 | 0.4% |
| 40% | $284.26 | −1.2% |
| 50% | $304.56 | −2.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $537M | 9.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $139M | |
| Debt | $994M | |
| Cash | $2.9B | |
| Share price | $203.04 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Twilio would cost about $263.95 a share, $42.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $227.40 | $36.8B |
| Median | 30% | $263.95 | $42.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $265.98 | $43.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Twilio's latest quarter
Twilio, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+20% year over year), operating margin 9.5%, net earnings $161M, operating cash flow $389M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Twilio being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Twilio?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($263.95 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Twilio cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Twilio would cost about $263.95 a share, $42.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.