Filing Flows › Texas Instruments (TXN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Texas Instruments (TXN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($361.59 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $188.29 a share (−32% against today's $278.15). At $338.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $361.59 | today's $278.15 plus 30% |
| × shares | 921.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $333.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $13.6B | |
| − Cash | $8.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $338.4B | 31.7× EBITDA of $10.7B |
| Fees | $6.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $58.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $286.5B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $22.4B | $11.5B | $4.5B | $3.5B | $55.2B |
| Year 2 | $23.9B | $12.3B | $4.2B | $4.3B | $50.9B |
| Year 3 | $25.3B | $13.0B | $3.9B | $5.0B | $45.9B |
| Year 4 | $26.3B | $13.5B | $3.5B | $5.7B | $40.2B |
| Year 5 | $27.1B | $13.9B | $3.1B | $6.4B | $33.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 24.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $341.6B | |
| − Debt left | $33.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $307.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $286.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $278.15; the IRR reaches 20% at $188.29 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $305.96 | 5.6% |
| 20% | $333.78 | 3.4% |
| 30% | $361.59 | 1.4% |
| 40% | $389.41 | −0.3% |
| 50% | $417.22 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $20.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.7B | 51.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.2B | |
| Capital spending | $2.6B | |
| Debt | $13.6B | |
| Cash | $8.1B | |
| Share price | $278.15 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Texas Instruments would cost about $361.59 a share, $333.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $311.53 | $286.9B |
| Median | 30% | $361.59 | $333.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $364.38 | $335.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Texas Instruments' latest quarter
Texas Instruments, Q3 2026: revenue $6.1B (+28% year over year), operating margin 47.5%, net earnings $2.4B, operating cash flow $3.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Texas Instruments being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Texas Instruments?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($361.59 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $188.29 a share (−32% against today's $278.15). At $338.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Texas Instruments cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Texas Instruments would cost about $361.59 a share, $333.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.