Filing Flows › Uber Technologies (UBER) › Takeover & LBO
Is Uber Technologies (UBER) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($89.35 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.67 a share (−26% against today's $68.73). At $188.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $89.35 | today's $68.73 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,050.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $183.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $15.7B | |
| − Cash | $10.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $188.8B | 24.2× EBITDA of $7.8B |
| Fees | $3.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $42.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $149.6B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $61.0B | $8.4B | $3.3B | $3.3B | $39.6B |
| Year 2 | $65.2B | $9.0B | $3.0B | $3.9B | $35.7B |
| Year 3 | $68.8B | $9.5B | $2.7B | $4.6B | $31.2B |
| Year 4 | $71.7B | $9.9B | $2.4B | $5.2B | $26.0B |
| Year 5 | $73.8B | $10.2B | $2.0B | $5.8B | $20.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $191.4B | |
| − Debt left | $20.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $171.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $149.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $68.73; the IRR reaches 20% at $50.67 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $75.60 | 7.2% |
| 20% | $82.48 | 4.8% |
| 30% | $89.35 | 2.7% |
| 40% | $96.22 | 0.8% |
| 50% | $103.09 | −0.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $56.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.8B | 13.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $769M | |
| Capital spending | $314M | |
| Debt | $15.7B | |
| Cash | $10.1B | |
| Share price | $68.73 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Uber Technologies would cost about $96.22 a share, $197.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $78.83 | $161.6B |
| Median | 40% | $96.22 | $197.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $110.11 | $225.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Uber Technologies' latest quarter
Uber Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $14.8B (+10% year over year), operating margin 9.8%, net earnings $512M, operating cash flow $2.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Uber Technologies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Uber Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($89.35 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.67 a share (−26% against today's $68.73). At $188.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Uber Technologies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Uber Technologies would cost about $96.22 a share, $197.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.