Filing Flows › Ubiquiti (UI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ubiquiti (UI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($732.95 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $732.95 | today's $563.81 plus 30% |
| × shares | 60.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $44.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $47.5M | |
| − Cash | $845M | |
| = Enterprise value | $43.6B | 32.7× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $872M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $37.1B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $1.4B | $561M | $667M | $6.7B |
| Year 2 | $4.1B | $1.5B | $510M | $788M | $5.9B |
| Year 3 | $4.3B | $1.6B | $450M | $908M | $5.0B |
| Year 4 | $4.5B | $1.7B | $381M | $1.0B | $4.0B |
| Year 5 | $4.7B | $1.7B | $302M | $1.1B | $2.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 25.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $43.6B | |
| − Debt left | $2.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $40.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $37.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $563.81.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $620.19 | 6.2% |
| 20% | $676.57 | 3.9% |
| 30% | $732.95 | 1.9% |
| 40% | $789.33 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $845.71 | −1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 37.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $19.0M | |
| Capital spending | $20.9M | |
| Debt | $47.5M | |
| Cash | $845M | |
| Share price | $563.81 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ubiquiti would cost about $732.95 a share, $44.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $631.47 | $38.2B |
| Median | 30% | $732.95 | $44.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $738.59 | $44.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ubiquiti's latest quarter
Ubiquiti, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.0B (+40% year over year), operating margin 38.1%, net earnings $320M, operating cash flow $319M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ubiquiti being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ubiquiti?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($732.95 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Ubiquiti cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ubiquiti would cost about $732.95 a share, $44.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.