Filing Flows › United Rentals (URI) › Takeover & LBO
Is United Rentals (URI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,362.82 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $745.39 a share (−29% against today's $1,048.32). At $101.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,362.82 | today's $1,048.32 plus 30% |
| × shares | 64.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $87.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $14.3B | |
| − Cash | $459M | |
| = Enterprise value | $101.4B | 23.0× EBITDA of $4.4B |
| Fees | $2.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $24.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $79.2B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $17.4B | $4.8B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $22.1B |
| Year 2 | $18.6B | $5.1B | $1.7B | $2.5B | $19.6B |
| Year 3 | $19.6B | $5.4B | $1.5B | $2.9B | $16.6B |
| Year 4 | $20.4B | $5.6B | $1.3B | $3.3B | $13.3B |
| Year 5 | $21.0B | $5.8B | $1.0B | $3.6B | $9.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $106.1B | |
| − Debt left | $9.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $96.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $79.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $1,048.32; the IRR reaches 20% at $745.39 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $1,153.15 | 8.0% |
| 20% | $1,257.98 | 5.9% |
| 30% | $1,362.82 | 4.0% |
| 40% | $1,467.65 | 2.3% |
| 50% | $1,572.48 | 0.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $16.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.4B | 27.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $438M | |
| Debt | $14.3B | |
| Cash | $459M | |
| Share price | $1,048.32 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, United Rentals would cost about $1,467.65 a share, $94.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $1,202.42 | $77.3B |
| Median | 40% | $1,467.65 | $94.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $1,679.41 | $107.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
United Rentals' latest quarter
United Rentals, Q3 2026: revenue $4.9B (+16% year over year), operating margin 28.8%, net earnings $920M, operating cash flow $1.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is United Rentals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy United Rentals?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,362.82 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $745.39 a share (−29% against today's $1,048.32). At $101.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of United Rentals cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, United Rentals would cost about $1,467.65 a share, $94.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.