Filing Flows › Utz Brands (UTZ) › Takeover & LBO
Is Utz Brands (UTZ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($18.55 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 10.8× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 8.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.67× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-06): Utz Brands Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $18.55 | today's $14.27 plus 30% |
| × shares | 88.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $876M | |
| − Cash | $70.1M | |
| + Other claims | $610M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.1B | 40.8× EBITDA of $74.9M |
| Fees | $61.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $412M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.7B | 87% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.5B | $75.3M | $31.5M | −$14.3M | $426M |
| Year 2 | $1.5B | $76.1M | $32.6M | −$16.1M | $442M |
| Year 3 | $1.5B | $77.4M | $33.8M | −$18.0M | $460M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $79.3M | $35.2M | −$19.9M | $480M |
| Year 5 | $1.6B | $81.6M | $36.7M | −$21.9M | $502M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 35.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.9B | |
| − Debt left | $502M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.89× | on $2.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $14.27.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $15.70 | −0.3% |
| 20% | $17.12 | −1.3% |
| 30% | $18.55 | −2.2% |
| 40% | $19.98 | −3.1% |
| 50% | $21.41 | −4.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $74.9M | 5.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $90.2M | |
| Capital spending | $57.1M | |
| Debt | $876M | |
| Cash | $70.1M | |
| Share price | $14.27 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Utz Brands would cost about $18.91 a share, $1.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $17.12 | $1.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $18.91 | $1.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $21.66 | $1.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 8.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-06 · 8-K · Utz Brands Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
- 2026-11-02 · news · Utz Brands CEO Howard Friedman to Depart Following Take-Private Transaction
- 2026-10-30 · 8-K deal · On October 28, 2026, Howard Friedman, the Chief Executive Officer of Utz Brands, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ” or “ Utz ”), who also serves as the Company’s principal operating officer and as a member of Utz’s Board of Direc
- 2026-10-02 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
- 2026-08-24 · deal · Agreed sale at $14.25 cash a share · pending
- 2026-08-24 · SC 13E3 · Going-private statement (Schedule 13E-3)
Utz Brands' latest quarter
Utz Brands, Q3 2026: revenue $369M (-2% year over year), operating margin -5.9%, net loss $32.1M, operating cash flow −$4.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Utz Brands being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-06: Utz Brands Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Utz Brands?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($18.55 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 10.8× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Utz Brands cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Utz Brands would cost about $18.91 a share, $1.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.