Filing Flows › Universal (UVV) › Takeover & LBO
Is Universal (UVV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($53.87 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.07 a share (−76% against today's $41.44). It already carries 7.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $53.87 | today's $41.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 25.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $47.0M | |
| + Other claims | $34.6M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.5B | 15.5× EBITDA of $164M |
| Fees | $50.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $901M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.7B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.6B | $159M | $69.0M | $16.7M | $885M |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $157M | $67.7M | $16.7M | $868M |
| Year 3 | $2.6B | $157M | $66.4M | $17.6M | $850M |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $159M | $65.1M | $15.6M | $835M |
| Year 5 | $2.7B | $164M | $63.9M | $14.4M | $820M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.2B | |
| − Debt left | $820M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.83× | on $1.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $41.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $10.07 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $45.58 | −1.0% |
| 20% | $49.73 | −2.4% |
| 30% | $53.87 | −3.6% |
| 40% | $58.02 | −4.8% |
| 50% | $62.16 | −5.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $164M | 6.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $52.0M | |
| Capital spending | $63.3M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $47.0M | |
| Share price | $41.44 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Universal would cost about $58.02 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $47.53 | $1.2B |
| Median | 40% | $58.02 | $1.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $66.39 | $1.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Universal's latest quarter
Universal, Q2 FY27: revenue $617M (-18% year over year), operating margin 6.9%, net earnings $12.6M, operating cash flow −$96.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Universal being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Universal?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($53.87 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.07 a share (−76% against today's $41.44). It already carries 7.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Universal cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Universal would cost about $58.02 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.