Filing Flows › Visa (V) › Takeover & LBO
Is Visa (V) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($552.34 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $287.75 a share (−32% against today's $424.88). At $1.04T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-22): Visa (V) Denies Acquisition Talks with Fireblocks Amid Market Ru.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $552.34 | today's $424.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,869.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.03T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $22.1B | |
| − Cash | $12.9B | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.04T | 35.3× EBITDA of $29.5B |
| Fees | $20.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $162.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $900.0B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $49.6B | $31.9B | $12.4B | $14.4B | $148.0B |
| Year 2 | $52.9B | $34.0B | $11.3B | $17.0B | $131.0B |
| Year 3 | $55.8B | $35.9B | $10.0B | $19.6B | $111.4B |
| Year 4 | $58.2B | $37.4B | $8.5B | $22.1B | $89.2B |
| Year 5 | $60.0B | $38.5B | $6.8B | $24.5B | $64.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 27.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.05T | |
| − Debt left | $64.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $984.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $900.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $424.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $287.75 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $467.37 | 5.9% |
| 20% | $509.86 | 3.7% |
| 30% | $552.34 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $594.83 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $637.32 | −1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $45.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $29.5B | 64.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $1.7B | |
| Debt | $22.1B | |
| Cash | $12.9B | |
| Share price | $424.88 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Visa would cost about $594.83 a share, $1.11T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $487.34 | $910.8B |
| Median | 40% | $594.83 | $1.11T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $680.66 | $1.27T |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-22 · news · Visa (V) Denies Acquisition Talks with Fireblocks Amid Market Ru
Visa's latest quarter
Visa, Q4 FY26: revenue $12.1B (+13% year over year), operating margin 59.8%, net earnings $6.0B, operating cash flow $7.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Visa being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-22: Visa (V) Denies Acquisition Talks with Fireblocks Amid Market Ru. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Visa?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($552.34 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $287.75 a share (−32% against today's $424.88). At $1.04T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Visa cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Visa would cost about $594.83 a share, $1.11T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.