Filing Flows › Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($711.07 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $362.67 a share (−34% against today's $546.98). At $179.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $711.07 | today's $546.98 plus 30% |
| × shares | 255.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $181.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.5B | |
| − Cash | $6.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $179.7B | 39.6× EBITDA of $4.5B |
| Fees | $3.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $25.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $158.3B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $14.0B | $4.9B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $23.1B |
| Year 2 | $14.9B | $5.2B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $20.8B |
| Year 3 | $15.8B | $5.5B | $1.6B | $2.7B | $18.1B |
| Year 4 | $16.4B | $5.8B | $1.4B | $3.0B | $15.1B |
| Year 5 | $16.9B | $5.9B | $1.2B | $3.3B | $11.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 30.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $179.9B | |
| − Debt left | $11.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $168.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $158.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $546.98; the IRR reaches 20% at $362.67 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $601.68 | 5.3% |
| 20% | $656.38 | 3.1% |
| 30% | $711.07 | 1.2% |
| 40% | $765.77 | −0.5% |
| 50% | $820.47 | −2.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.5B | 35.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $237M | |
| Capital spending | $492M | |
| Debt | $4.5B | |
| Cash | $6.3B | |
| Share price | $546.98 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Vertex Pharmaceuticals would cost about $738.42 a share, $188.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $667.32 | $170.3B |
| Median | 35% | $738.42 | $188.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $793.12 | $202.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals' latest quarter
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Q3 2026: revenue $3.4B (+12% year over year), operating margin 20.7%, net earnings $654M, operating cash flow $643M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Vertex Pharmaceuticals?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($711.07 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $362.67 a share (−34% against today's $546.98). At $179.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Vertex Pharmaceuticals cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Vertex Pharmaceuticals would cost about $738.42 a share, $188.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.