Filing Flows › VSE (VSEC) › Takeover & LBO
Is VSE (VSEC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($192.18 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $98.94 a share (−33% against today's $147.83). Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $192.18 | today's $147.83 plus 30% |
| × shares | 31.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $960M | |
| − Cash | $65.8M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.0B | 26.1× EBITDA of $269M |
| Fees | $140M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.7B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $290M | $113M | $108M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $310M | $105M | $129M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $327M | $95.0M | $150M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $341M | $83.5M | $171M | $921M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $351M | $70.4M | $190M | $731M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.3B | |
| − Debt left | $731M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $5.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $147.83; the IRR reaches 20% at $98.94 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $162.61 | 6.9% |
| 20% | $177.40 | 4.9% |
| 30% | $192.18 | 3.0% |
| 40% | $206.96 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $221.75 | −0.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $269M | 16.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $77.0M | |
| Capital spending | $31.5M | |
| Debt | $960M | |
| Cash | $65.8M | |
| Share price | $147.83 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, VSE would cost about $206.96 a share, $6.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $169.56 | $5.4B |
| Median | 40% | $206.96 | $6.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $236.82 | $7.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
VSE's latest quarter
VSE, Q3 2026: revenue $541M (+91% year over year), operating margin 14.3%, net earnings $47.3M, operating cash flow $56.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is VSE being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy VSE?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($192.18 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $98.94 a share (−33% against today's $147.83).
What would a takeover of VSE cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, VSE would cost about $206.96 a share, $6.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.