Filing Flows › Bristow Group (VTOL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Bristow Group (VTOL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($54.59 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $34.98 a share (−17% against today's $41.99). Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.08× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $54.59 | today's $41.99 plus 30% |
| × shares | 29.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $742M | |
| − Cash | $233M | |
| + Other claims | −$57K | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.1B | 8.0× EBITDA of $266M |
| Fees | $42.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $791M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $288M | $106M | −$12.6M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $307M | $107M | −$6.3M | $1.4B |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $324M | $108M | $96K | $1.4B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $338M | $108M | $6.3M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $348M | $107M | $12.0M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.3B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $911M | |
| Money multiple | 1.15× | on $791M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $41.99; the IRR reaches 20% at $34.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $46.19 | 10.2% |
| 20% | $50.39 | 6.5% |
| 30% | $54.59 | 2.9% |
| 40% | $58.79 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $62.98 | −3.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $266M | 16.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $112M | |
| Capital spending | $159M | |
| Debt | $742M | |
| Cash | $233M | |
| Share price | $41.99 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bristow Group would cost about $58.79 a share, $1.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $48.16 | $1.4B |
| Median | 40% | $58.79 | $1.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $67.27 | $2.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.08× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Bristow Group's latest quarter
Bristow Group, Q3 2026: revenue $438M (+13% year over year), operating margin 10.9%, net earnings $27.8M, operating cash flow $61.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Bristow Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Bristow Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($54.59 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $34.98 a share (−17% against today's $41.99).
What would a takeover of Bristow Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bristow Group would cost about $58.79 a share, $1.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.