Filing Flows › Wingstop (WING) › Takeover & LBO
Is Wingstop (WING) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($171.24 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $77.81 a share (−41% against today's $131.72). Historically 8.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.7× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $171.24 | today's $131.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 27.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $127M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.7B | 25.0× EBITDA of $229M |
| Fees | $115M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.6B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $781M | $245M | $96.5M | $42.3M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $827M | $260M | $93.2M | $51.8M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $868M | $272M | $89.3M | $61.2M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $902M | $283M | $84.6M | $70.2M | $1.0B |
| Year 5 | $929M | $292M | $79.2M | $78.6M | $957M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.9B | |
| − Debt left | $957M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $4.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $131.72; the IRR reaches 20% at $77.81 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $144.89 | 5.2% |
| 20% | $158.06 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $171.24 | 1.6% |
| 40% | $184.41 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $197.58 | −1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $730M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $229M | 31.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $26.7M | |
| Capital spending | $61.0M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $127M | |
| Share price | $131.72 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Wingstop would cost about $174.53 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $158.06 | $4.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $174.53 | $4.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $199.95 | $5.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 8.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.7× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Wingstop's latest quarter
Wingstop, Q3 2026: revenue $185M (+5% year over year), operating margin 27.4%, net earnings $29.1M, operating cash flow $61.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Wingstop being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Wingstop?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($171.24 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $77.81 a share (−41% against today's $131.72).
What would a takeover of Wingstop cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Wingstop would cost about $174.53 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.