Filing Flows › Waste Management (WM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Waste Management (WM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($313.65 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $158.68 a share (−34% against today's $241.27). At $148.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $313.65 | today's $241.27 plus 30% |
| × shares | 399.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $125.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $23.4B | |
| − Cash | $247M | |
| + Other claims | $1.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $148.5B | 19.1× EBITDA of $7.8B |
| Fees | $3.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $42.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $108.8B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $27.4B | $8.2B | $3.3B | $1.4B | $41.3B |
| Year 2 | $28.7B | $8.6B | $3.2B | $1.7B | $39.6B |
| Year 3 | $29.9B | $8.9B | $3.0B | $2.0B | $37.6B |
| Year 4 | $30.9B | $9.2B | $2.9B | $2.3B | $35.3B |
| Year 5 | $31.9B | $9.5B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $32.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $146.1B | |
| − Debt left | $32.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $113.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $108.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $241.27; the IRR reaches 20% at $158.68 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $265.40 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $289.52 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $313.65 | 0.8% |
| 40% | $337.78 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $361.91 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $26.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.8B | 29.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.0B | |
| Capital spending | $2.8B | |
| Debt | $23.4B | |
| Cash | $247M | |
| Share price | $241.27 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Waste Management would cost about $319.68 a share, $127.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $289.52 | $115.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $319.68 | $127.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $366.25 | $146.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Waste Management's latest quarter
Waste Management, Q3 2026: revenue $6.8B (+6% year over year), operating margin 18.7%, net earnings $820M, operating cash flow $1.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Waste Management being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Waste Management?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($313.65 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $158.68 a share (−34% against today's $241.27). At $148.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Waste Management cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Waste Management would cost about $319.68 a share, $127.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.