Filing Flows › Walmart (WMT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Walmart (WMT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($167.26 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $77.86 a share (−39% against today's $128.66). At $1.38T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $167.26 | today's $128.66 plus 30% |
| × shares | 7,978.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.33T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $48.6B | |
| − Cash | $11.5B | |
| + Other claims | $6.3B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.38T | 29.1× EBITDA of $47.4B |
| Fees | $27.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $260.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.14T | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $781.2B | $50.3B | $19.9B | −$8.7B | $269.3B |
| Year 2 | $823.1B | $53.0B | $20.6B | −$8.3B | $277.6B |
| Year 3 | $860.8B | $55.4B | $21.2B | −$7.8B | $285.4B |
| Year 4 | $893.4B | $57.5B | $21.8B | −$7.3B | $292.8B |
| Year 5 | $920.2B | $59.2B | $22.4B | −$6.8B | $299.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 22.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.34T | |
| − Debt left | $299.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.04T | |
| Money multiple | 0.91× | on $1.14T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $128.66; the IRR reaches 20% at $77.86 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $141.53 | 2.1% |
| 20% | $154.40 | 0.0% |
| 30% | $167.26 | −1.9% |
| 40% | $180.13 | −3.6% |
| 50% | $192.99 | −5.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $735.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $47.4B | 6.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $15.1B | |
| Capital spending | $29.4B | |
| Debt | $48.6B | |
| Cash | $11.5B | |
| Share price | $128.66 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Walmart would cost about $170.48 a share, $1.36T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $154.40 | $1.23T |
| Median | 32.5% | $170.48 | $1.36T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $195.31 | $1.56T |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Walmart's latest quarter
Walmart, Q2 FY27: revenue $187.9B (+6% year over year), operating margin 5.0%, net earnings $6.5B, operating cash flow $15.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Walmart being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Walmart?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($167.26 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $77.86 a share (−39% against today's $128.66). At $1.38T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Walmart cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Walmart would cost about $170.48 a share, $1.36T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.