Filing Flows › Warby Parker (WRBY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Warby Parker (WRBY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($31.76 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $31.76 | today's $24.43 plus 30% |
| × shares | 125.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $293M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.7B | 67.3× EBITDA of $55.0M |
| Fees | $74.0M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $303M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.5B | 92% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $985M | $59.4M | $23.2M | −$50.5M | $353M |
| Year 2 | $1.1B | $63.4M | $27.0M | −$55.1M | $408M |
| Year 3 | $1.1B | $66.9M | $31.2M | −$59.6M | $468M |
| Year 4 | $1.2B | $69.8M | $35.8M | −$64.1M | $532M |
| Year 5 | $1.2B | $71.9M | $40.7M | −$68.4M | $600M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 50.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.6B | |
| − Debt left | $600M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.87× | on $3.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $24.43.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $26.87 | 1.3% |
| 20% | $29.32 | −0.8% |
| 30% | $31.76 | −2.7% |
| 40% | $34.20 | −4.4% |
| 50% | $36.64 | −5.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $912M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $55.0M | 6.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $53.5M | |
| Capital spending | $73.6M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $293M | |
| Share price | $24.43 | on Oct 28, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 14% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Warby Parker would cost about $32.98 a share, $4.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $29.80 | $3.7B |
| Median | 35% | $32.98 | $4.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $35.42 | $4.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Warby Parker's latest quarter
Warby Parker, Q3 2026: revenue $245M (+10% year over year), operating margin 1.5%, net earnings $5.6M, operating cash flow $24.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Warby Parker being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Warby Parker?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($31.76 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Warby Parker cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Warby Parker would cost about $32.98 a share, $4.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.