Filing Flows › Block (XYZ) › Takeover & LBO
Is Block (XYZ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($109.25 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $65.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $109.25 | today's $84.04 plus 30% |
| × shares | 614.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $67.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.7B | |
| − Cash | $7.9B | |
| + Other claims | −$37.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $65.0B | 41.5× EBITDA of $1.6B |
| Fees | $1.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $57.7B | 87% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $27.4B | $1.7B | $659M | $473M | $8.1B |
| Year 2 | $29.1B | $1.8B | $623M | $580M | $7.6B |
| Year 3 | $30.5B | $1.9B | $579M | $689M | $6.9B |
| Year 4 | $31.7B | $1.9B | $526M | $799M | $6.1B |
| Year 5 | $32.7B | $2.0B | $465M | $907M | $5.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 31.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $63.1B | |
| − Debt left | $5.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $57.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $57.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $84.04.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $92.44 | 4.2% |
| 20% | $100.85 | 2.0% |
| 30% | $109.25 | 0.1% |
| 40% | $117.66 | −1.6% |
| 50% | $126.06 | −3.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $25.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.6B | 6.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $378M | |
| Capital spending | $169M | |
| Debt | $5.7B | |
| Cash | $7.9B | |
| Share price | $84.04 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Block would cost about $109.25 a share, $67.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $94.12 | $57.9B |
| Median | 30% | $109.25 | $67.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $110.09 | $67.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Block's latest quarter
Block, Q3 2026: revenue $6.7B (+10% year over year), operating margin 6.4%, net earnings $564M, operating cash flow $1.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Block being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Block?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($109.25 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $65.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Block cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Block would cost about $109.25 a share, $67.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.