Filing Flows › Clear Secure (YOU) › Takeover & LBO
Is Clear Secure (YOU) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.59 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $55.59 | today's $42.77 plus 30% |
| × shares | 87.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $959M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.9B | 12.4× EBITDA of $317M |
| Fees | $78.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.3B | 56% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.1B | $342M | $133M | $140M | $1.6B |
| Year 2 | $1.2B | $365M | $122M | $168M | $1.4B |
| Year 3 | $1.3B | $385M | $110M | $195M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $1.3B | $401M | $94.7M | $222M | $1.0B |
| Year 5 | $1.4B | $413M | $77.7M | $248M | $768M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.6B | |
| − Debt left | $768M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.28× | on $2.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $42.77.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $47.04 | 14.1% |
| 20% | $51.32 | 9.0% |
| 30% | $55.59 | 5.0% |
| 40% | $59.87 | 1.8% |
| 50% | $64.15 | −1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $317M | 29.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $34.8M | |
| Capital spending | $34.3M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $959M | |
| Share price | $42.77 | on Oct 12, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 14% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Clear Secure would cost about $55.59 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $47.90 | $4.2B |
| Median | 30% | $55.59 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $56.02 | $4.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Clear Secure's latest quarter
Clear Secure, Q3 2026: revenue $293M (+28% year over year), operating margin 28.3%, net earnings $53.2M, operating cash flow −$98.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Clear Secure being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Clear Secure?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.59 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Clear Secure cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Clear Secure would cost about $55.59 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.