Filing Flows › Alcoa (AA) › Stock forecast & fair value
Alcoa (AA) stock forecast and fair value
Alcoa (AA) trades at $39.54. 13 analysts' median price target is $55.00 (+39%), from $48.00 to $63.00. Across 21 valuation methods the middle fair value is $54.59 (+38%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E vs peers | $69.48 | $110.32 | $137.20 | +179% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $97.05 | $142.41 | $298.29 | +260% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $77.70 | $106.91 | $180.64 | +170% |
| P/E vs peers, growth-adjusted | $79.92 | $123.40 | $190.53 | +212% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $48.02 | $85.94 | $121.62 | +117% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $77.31 | $111.07 | $298.67 | +181% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, matched | $48.17 | $95.25 | $129.70 | +141% |
| Residual income | $36.55 | $37.87 | $39.27 | -4% |
| Analysts' price targets | $48.00 | $54.59 | $63.00 | +38% |
| Owner earnings capitalized | $58.88 | $65.65 | $74.18 | +66% |
Alcoa's latest quarter
Alcoa, Q3 2026: revenue $3.7B (+24% year over year), operating margin 15.5%, net earnings $483M, operating cash flow $643M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for AA stock?
The median of 13 analysts' 12-month targets is $55.00, +39% from $39.54; the range is $48.00 to $63.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Alcoa's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $4.61 and $142.41, with a middle value of $54.59 against a price of $39.54. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Alcoa usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 50% of the quarters on record.
Is AA stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.