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American Airlines Group (AAL): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 22, 2026; rules v1.1
American Airlines Group (AAL): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is -13.71 a share (price 13.18); 168% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -66.38 to 33.62; across every method the research ran the range is -225 to 236. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($1.3B → −$680M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $4.0B |
| Operating cash flow | $3.1B |
| Capex, year before | $2.7B |
| Capex | $3.8B |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.3B |
| Free cash flow | −$680M |
| Change in FCF | −$2.0B |
| Change in capex | $1.1B |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $236M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.1% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $57M |
| Revenue | $54.6B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.1% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 721.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 661.1M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -8.3% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -5% against revenue 19% in Q3 2026; DSO 11 against a median of 13: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +19.3% |
| Receivables, year over year | -4.9% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +16.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -8.0% |
| Days sales outstanding | 10.8 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 13.2 |
| Receivables | $1.9B |
| Revenue | $16.3B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$3.6B comes due within a year, 2.3× covered by cash and investments of $8.3B.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $8.3B |
| Debt | $25.4B |
| Net debt | $17.1B |
| Due within a year | $3.6B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$91M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $8.3B |
| Coverage of what is due | 2.3 |
| Due in the second year | $4.5B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is -13.71 a share (price 13.18); 168% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -66.38 to 33.62; across every method the research ran the range is -225 to 236. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | -13.71 |
| price | 13.18 |
| terminal value share | +168.3% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / -66.38 / 33.62; WACC / ±1 pt / -18.47 / -5.7; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / -18.06 / -9.36; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / -15.99 / -11.43 |
| range all methods | -225.2; 235.76 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → American Airlines Group: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.