Filing Flows › Disclosures › Analysis traps

Analysis traps: where the figures could mislead you

10 rules on 4,197 companies' filings, each a common misreading of a figure: FCF growth = the business improved (651), stock compensation added back = no economic cost (1139), receivables growing = future cash is certain (231), adjusted profit = economic profit (95), low net debt = no refinancing risk (277), EPS growth = profit growth (8), low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued (54), A precise DCF value = the true value (0), A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe (22), A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe (33). A triggered rule is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.

A01 · FCF growth = the business improved 651 of 4197

Free cash flow rose, but working capital released cash or capital expenditure fell: the part of the increase that need not repeat next year. Cases: C01, C09, C23 ·Papers: P01, P05, P21

• GOOGL Alphabet medium · Free cash flow rose $502M (+1%), from $72.8B to $73.3B, but working capital released $9.2B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• AAPL Apple medium · Free cash flow rose $37.3B (+38%), from $98.8B to $136.1B, but working capital released $16.5B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $3.7B: 54% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• MCK McKesson medium · Free cash flow rose $493M (+9%), from $5.2B to $5.7B, but capital expenditure fell by $423M: 86% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CVS CVS Health medium · Free cash flow rose $1.5B (+23%), from $6.3B to $7.8B, but working capital released $1.2B more cash than the year before: 78% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CAH Cardinal Health medium · Free cash flow rose $2.7B (+145%), from $1.9B to $4.5B, but working capital released $2.2B more cash than the year before: 83% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• GM General Motors high · Free cash flow rose $8.3B (+89%), from $9.3B to $17.6B, but working capital released $12.2B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $1.5B: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• DELL Dell Technologies high · Free cash flow rose $6.7B (+358%), from $1.9B to $8.6B, but working capital released $6.8B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $19M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CMCSA Comcast medium · Free cash flow rose $6.4B (+41%), from $15.5B to $21.9B, but working capital released $5.9B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $431M: 100% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• TSLA Tesla high · Free cash flow rose $2.6B (+74%), from $3.6B to $6.2B, but capital expenditure fell by $2.8B: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• PEP PepsiCo high · Free cash flow rose $483M (+7%), from $7.2B to $7.7B, but working capital released $275M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $903M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• DIS Walt Disney medium · Free cash flow rose $1.5B (+18%), from $8.6B to $10.1B, but working capital released $1.2B more cash than the year before: 78% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• BA Boeing medium · Free cash flow rose $12.4B, from −$14.3B to −$1.9B, but working capital released $7.6B more cash than the year before: 61% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• TMUS T-Mobile US medium · Free cash flow rose $4.5B (+34%), from $13.5B to $18.0B, but working capital released $3.9B more cash than the year before: 87% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• PG Procter & Gamble medium · Free cash flow rose $1.1B (+8%), from $14.0B to $15.1B, but working capital released $1.2B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland medium · Free cash flow rose $3.0B (+243%), from $1.2B to $4.2B, but working capital released $2.0B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $315M: 78% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• SYY Sysco high · Free cash flow rose $334M (+21%), from $1.6B to $1.9B, but working capital released $432M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $206M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• DAL Delta Air Lines high · Free cash flow rose $958M (+33%), from $2.9B to $3.8B, but working capital released $844M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $641M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• SUN Sunoco LP medium · Free cash flow rose $410M (+200%), from $205M to $615M, but working capital released $537M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• INTC Intel medium · Free cash flow rose $10.7B, from −$15.7B to −$4.9B, but capital expenditure fell by $9.3B: 87% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• Publix Super Markets medium · Free cash flow rose $700M (+24%), from $3.0B to $3.7B, but capital expenditure fell by $360M: 51% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• INGM Ingram Micro Holding high · Free cash flow rose $594M (+311%), from $191M to $785M, but working capital released $726M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $12M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• WKC World Kinect high · Free cash flow rose $36M (+19%), from $192M to $227M, but working capital released $189M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $3M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• ABT Abbott Laboratories high · Free cash flow rose $1.0B (+16%), from $6.4B to $7.4B, but working capital released $8.4B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $36M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• GEV GE Vernova high · Free cash flow rose $2.0B (+118%), from $1.7B to $3.7B, but working capital released $3.6B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• V Visa medium · Free cash flow rose $480M (+2%), from $21.6B to $22.1B, but working capital released $292M more cash than the year before: 61% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• IMO Imperial Oil high · Free cash flow rose $589M (+14%), from $4.1B to $4.7B, but working capital released $2.3B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CRM Salesforce high · Free cash flow rose $2.0B (+16%), from $12.4B to $14.4B, but working capital released $1.9B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $64M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• SLB SLB Limited high · Free cash flow rose $124M (+3%), from $4.7B to $4.8B, but working capital released $1.0B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $237M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CMI Cummins high · Free cash flow rose $2.1B (+755%), from $279M to $2.4B, but working capital released $2.2B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• LIN Linde medium · Free cash flow rose $163M (+3%), from $4.9B to $5.1B, but working capital released $392M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• BKNG Booking Holdings medium · Free cash flow rose $1.2B (+15%), from $7.9B to $9.1B, but working capital released $733M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $107M: 70% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CCL Carnival medium · Free cash flow rose $1.3B (+101%), from $1.3B to $2.6B, but capital expenditure fell by $1.0B: 77% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• LUV Southwest Airlines medium · Free cash flow rose $761M, from −$1.6B to −$831M, but working capital released $1.2B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• PCAR Paccar medium · Free cash flow rose $735M (+25%), from $2.9B to $3.7B, but capital expenditure fell by $960M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• CEG Constellation Energy high · Free cash flow rose $6.3B, from −$5.0B to $1.3B, but working capital released $9.2B more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• MCD McDonald's medium · Free cash flow rose $514M (+8%), from $6.7B to $7.2B, but working capital released $755M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• DVN Devon Energy high · Free cash flow rose $164M (+6%), from $3.0B to $3.1B, but working capital released $418M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $53M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• GLP Global Partners LP medium · Free cash flow rose $265M, from −$72M to $193M, but working capital released $236M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $12M: 94% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• AZO AutoZone medium · Free cash flow rose $25M (+1%), from $1.8B to $1.8B, but working capital released $89M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.
• MMM 3M high · Free cash flow rose $758M (+119%), from $638M to $1.4B, but working capital released $2.3B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $271M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat.

A07 · Stock compensation added back = no economic cost 1139 of 4197

Stock compensation is a real cost paid in shares; 'adjusted' figures that add it back only hold up when buybacks have paid for the dilution.

• AVGO Broadcom high · Stock compensation was $7.6B, 11.8% of revenue, in FY25; buybacks were $2.5B (0.3× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.6%.
• ORCL Oracle medium · Stock compensation was $4.8B, 7.1% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $95M (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.7%.
• INTC Intel medium · Stock compensation was $2.4B, 4.6% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 5.8%.
• AMD Advanced Micro Devices medium · Stock compensation was $1.6B, 4.7% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $1.3B (0.8× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• BLK BlackRock medium · Stock compensation was $1.3B, 5.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 6.1%.
• KKR KKR medium · Stock compensation was $722M, 3.7% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $3M (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• DASH DoorDash medium · Stock compensation was $1.1B, 7.7% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.2%.
• NOW ServiceNow high · Stock compensation was $2.0B, 14.7% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $1.8B (0.9× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• SHOP Shopify medium · Stock compensation was $449M, 3.9% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• WELL Welltower high · Stock compensation was $1.6B, 14.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 11.6%.
• PANW Palo Alto Networks high · Stock compensation was $1.8B, 15.5% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $1.0B (0.6× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 7.8%.
• RKT Rocket Companies medium · Stock compensation was $343M, 5.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 837.6%.
• BX Blackstone high · Stock compensation was $1.4B, 10.0% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.8%.
• HBAN Huntington Bancshares medium · Stock compensation was $113M, 7.2% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.9%.
• CRWV CoreWeave high · Stock compensation was $630M, 12.3% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 100.0%.
• EQIX Equinix medium · Stock compensation was $498M, 5.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.4%.
• SNPS Synopsys high · Stock compensation was $893M, 12.7% of revenue, in FY25; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 6.2%.
• PLTR Palantir Technologies high · Stock compensation was $684M, 15.3% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $75M (0.1× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 4.7%.
• RIVN Rivian Automotive high · Stock compensation was $741M, 13.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 17.1%.
• TOST Toast medium · Stock compensation was $242M, 3.9% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $107M (0.4× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.7%.
• ONC BeOne Medicines medium · Stock compensation was $511M, 9.6% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 7.8%.
• LYFT Lyft medium · Stock compensation was $322M, 5.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $500M (1.6× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.0%.
• SNAP Snap high · Stock compensation was $1.0B, 17.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $751M (0.7× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.1%.
• MCHP Microchip Technology medium · Stock compensation was $255M, 5.4% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.5%.
• RBLX Roblox high · Stock compensation was $1.1B, 23.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 6.5%.
• INCY Incyte medium · Stock compensation was $249M, 4.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• SNOW Snowflake high · Stock compensation was $1.6B, 34.1% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $874M (0.5× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.4%.
• TTWO Take Two Interactive Software medium · Stock compensation was $305M, 4.6% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• ROKU Roku medium · Stock compensation was $354M, 7.5% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $150M (0.4× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 4.3%.
• CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings high · Stock compensation was $1.1B, 22.8% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.4%.
• ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals medium · Stock compensation was $348M, 9.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 5.5%.
• ARM Arm Holdings high · Stock compensation was $1.1B, 21.4% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• HOOD Robinhood Markets medium · Stock compensation was $305M, 6.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $653M (2.1× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.4%.
• SOFI SoFi Technologies medium · Stock compensation was $262M, 7.3% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 13.7%.
• DKNG DraftKings medium · Stock compensation was $339M, 5.6% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $572M (1.7× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.9%.
• TLN Talen Energy high · Stock compensation was $526M, 20.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $103M (0.2× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.
• MRNA Moderna high · Stock compensation was $483M, 24.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $2M (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.3%.
• LITE Lumentum Holdings medium · Stock compensation was $170M, 5.6% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 7.2%.
• AFRM Affirm Holdings medium · Stock compensation was $305M, 7.2% of revenue, in FY26; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 2.3%.
• JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals medium · Stock compensation was $291M, 6.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $125M (0.4× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it.

B02 · Receivables growing = future cash is certain 231 of 4197

Receivables growing faster than revenue for two quarters, with days sales outstanding above its own history: more of each sale is still owed. Cases: C02, C03, C04, C06, C09, C10, C28, C29, C30, C31, C32, C33 ·Papers: P01, P02, P03, P05, P06, P16, P17, P18, P20, P25

• AMZN Amazon.com high · Receivables grew 61% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 12%, and the quarter before 53% against 20%; days sales outstanding is 42 against a median of 30 over the eight quarters before.
• LOW Lowe's Companies high · Receivables grew 287% year over year in Q2 FY27 against revenue growth of 8%, and the quarter before 1099% against 10%; days sales outstanding is 4 against a median of 3 over the eight quarters before.
• HPQ HP medium · Receivables grew 40% year over year in Q3 FY26 against revenue growth of 13%, and the quarter before 41% against 9%; days sales outstanding is 39 against a median of 32 over the eight quarters before.
• ARW Arrow Electronics high · Receivables grew 112% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 39%, and the quarter before 83% against 32%; days sales outstanding is 260 against a median of 182 over the eight quarters before.
• LUV Southwest Airlines high · Receivables grew 283% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 21%, and the quarter before 30% against 16%; days sales outstanding is 2 against a median of 1 over the eight quarters before.
• MO Altria Group high · Receivables grew 37% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 1%, and the quarter before 27% against 0%; days sales outstanding is 5 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before.
• MGM MGM Resorts International medium · Receivables grew 15% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -1%, and the quarter before 17% against 1%; days sales outstanding is 25 against a median of 21 over the eight quarters before.
• LVS Las Vegas Sands medium · Receivables grew 21% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -3%, and the quarter before 17% against -1%; days sales outstanding is 18 against a median of 15 over the eight quarters before.
• DRI Darden Restaurants medium · Receivables grew 25% year over year in Q1 FY27 against revenue growth of 5%, and the quarter before 38% against 14%; days sales outstanding is 4 against a median of 3 over the eight quarters before.
• Cheniere Corpus Christi Holdings, LLC high · Receivables grew 293% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 84%, and the quarter before 177% against 49%; days sales outstanding is 21 against a median of 13 over the eight quarters before.
• LUMN Lumen Technologies medium · Receivables grew 11% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -12%, and the quarter before 9% against -9%; days sales outstanding is 47 against a median of 38 over the eight quarters before.
• NSIT Insight Enterprises medium · Receivables grew 35% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 22%, and the quarter before 43% against 15%; days sales outstanding is 286 against a median of 247 over the eight quarters before.
• LULU lululemon athletica medium · Receivables grew 23% year over year in Q2 FY27 against revenue growth of -4%, and the quarter before 17% against 4%; days sales outstanding is 6 against a median of 5 over the eight quarters before.
• ARKO Arko high · Receivables grew 68% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 18%, and the quarter before 35% against 17%; days sales outstanding is 7 against a median of 5 over the eight quarters before.
• PR Permian Resources high · Receivables grew 193% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 48%, and the quarter before 138% against 55%; days sales outstanding is 34 against a median of 22 over the eight quarters before.
• SOLV Solventum high · Receivables grew 34% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -7%, and the quarter before 23% against 2%; days sales outstanding is 63 against a median of 47 over the eight quarters before.
• TEAM Atlassian medium · Receivables grew 51% year over year in Q1 FY27 against revenue growth of 24%, and the quarter before 63% against 28%; days sales outstanding is 54 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before.
• H Hyatt Hotels high · Receivables grew 44% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -2%, and the quarter before 16% against 1%; days sales outstanding is 66 against a median of 56 over the eight quarters before.
• CDNS Cadence Design Systems medium · Receivables grew 47% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 22%, and the quarter before 59% against 24%; days sales outstanding is 61 against a median of 49 over the eight quarters before.
• ZBRA Zebra Technologies high · Receivables grew 56% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 22%, and the quarter before 56% against 20%; days sales outstanding is 57 against a median of 47 over the eight quarters before.
• CWH Camping World Holdings high · Receivables grew 20% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -12%, and the quarter before 18% against -2%; days sales outstanding is 9 against a median of 8 over the eight quarters before.
• SARO StandardAero medium · Receivables grew 30% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 4%, and the quarter before 20% against 5%; days sales outstanding is 51 against a median of 42 over the eight quarters before.
• ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings high · Receivables grew 168% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 121%, and the quarter before 143% against 92%; days sales outstanding is 54 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before.
• TKO TKO Group Holdings high · Receivables grew 72% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 21%, and the quarter before 67% against 18%; days sales outstanding is 70 against a median of 38 over the eight quarters before.
• ULCC Frontier Group Holdings medium · Receivables grew 78% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 53%, and the quarter before 50% against 38%; days sales outstanding is 11 against a median of 9 over the eight quarters before.
• HLF Herbalife medium · Receivables grew 20% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 6%, and the quarter before 20% against 5%; days sales outstanding is 8 against a median of 7 over the eight quarters before.
• DKNG DraftKings high · Receivables grew 53% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 16%, and the quarter before 19% against -5%; days sales outstanding is 6 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before.
• TLN Talen Energy high · Receivables grew 124% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 63%, and the quarter before 56% against 19%; days sales outstanding is 17 against a median of 15 over the eight quarters before.
• TER Teradyne medium · Receivables grew 87% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 70%, and the quarter before 156% against 104%; days sales outstanding is 77 against a median of 61 over the eight quarters before.
• OTEX Open Text medium · Receivables grew 12% year over year in Q1 FY27 against revenue growth of -4%, and the quarter before 14% against 3%; days sales outstanding is 53 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before.
• P Everpure high · Receivables grew 94% year over year in Q2 FY27 against revenue growth of 38%, and the quarter before 116% against 35%; days sales outstanding is 73 against a median of 64 over the eight quarters before.
• OGE OGE Energy medium · Receivables grew 11% year over year in Q1 2026 against revenue growth of 1%, and the quarter before 45% against -5%; days sales outstanding is 39 against a median of 34 over the eight quarters before.
• AKAM Akamai Technologies medium · Receivables grew 25% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 6%, and the quarter before 22% against 5%; days sales outstanding is 78 against a median of 67 over the eight quarters before.
• LCII LCI Industries medium · Receivables grew 6% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -4%, and the quarter before -1% against -13%; days sales outstanding is 36 against a median of 30 over the eight quarters before.
• MUR Murphy Oil high · Receivables grew 62% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 17%, and the quarter before 62% against 33%; days sales outstanding is 49 against a median of 38 over the eight quarters before.
• GME GameStop high · Receivables grew 110% year over year in Q2 FY27 against revenue growth of -19%, and the quarter before 33% against 14%; days sales outstanding is 9 against a median of 6 over the eight quarters before.
• SHOO Steven Madden medium · Receivables grew 31% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 16%, and the quarter before 38% against 19%; days sales outstanding is 1 against a median of 1 over the eight quarters before.
• OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings high · Receivables grew 331% year over year in Q2 FY27 against revenue growth of 9%, and the quarter before 108% against 14%; days sales outstanding is 1 against a median of 0 over the eight quarters before.
• DBI Designer Brands high · Receivables grew 40% year over year in Q2 FY27 against revenue growth of -1%, and the quarter before 34% against 1%; days sales outstanding is 10 against a median of 7 over the eight quarters before.
• PRG Prog Holdings high · Receivables grew 488% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 26%, and the quarter before 519% against 22%; days sales outstanding is 47 against a median of 11 over the eight quarters before.

B08 · Adjusted profit = economic profit 95 of 4197

Adjusted EPS at least 10% above GAAP quarter after quarter: the excluded costs are a recurring cost of the business. Cases: C05, C07, C08, C11, C12, C13, C15, C23, C24, C28, C32, C33, C34 ·Papers: P02, P03, P08, P18, P19

• DIS Walt Disney medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 21% above).
• CSCO Cisco Systems medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 24% above).
• HPQ HP medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 29% above).
• TSN Tyson Foods medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 46% above).
• MDT Medtronic medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 26% above).
• ARMK Aramark medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 28% above).
• INTU Intuit medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 35% above).
• ACM AECOM medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 34% above).
• J Jacobs Solutions high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 61% above).
• ADI Analog Devices medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 25% above).
• AMTM Amentum Holdings high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 63% above).
• SANM Sanmina medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 48% above).
• PANW Palo Alto Networks high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 72% above).
• ADSK Autodesk medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 31% above).
• POST Post Holdings medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 22% above).
• A Agilent Technologies medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 21% above).
• KEYS Keysight Technologies medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 27% above).
• SGI Somnigroup International medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 13% above).
• RBA RB Global medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 42% above).
• LGN Legence high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 221% above).
• GO Grocery Outlet Holding high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 1291% above).
• P Everpure high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 76% above).
• ENS EnerSys medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 20% above).
• VEEV Veeva Systems medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 30% above).
• GBTG Global Business Travel Group high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 141% above).
• MAGN Magnera high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 561% above).
• ATKR Atkore high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 181% above).
• NTNX Nutanix medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 44% above).
• SPB Spectrum Brands Holdings high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 60% above).
• SYM Symbotic high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 90% above).
• TTD Trade Desk high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 60% above).
• FWRD Forward Air high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 589% above).
• VSTS Vestis high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 98% above).
• FLNC Fluence Energy medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 24% above).
• RDNT RadNet high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 61% above).
• EPC Edgewell Personal Care high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 326% above).
• VVV Valvoline high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 65% above).
• CWST Casella Waste Systems high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 97% above).
• EYE National Vision Holdings medium · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 42% above).
• BWIN Baldwin Insurance Group high · Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 157% above).

C02 · Low net debt = no refinancing risk 277 of 4197

Debt due within a year exceeds cash and investments plus the last twelve months' free cash flow: a low net debt says nothing about when it falls due. Cases: C14, C18, C20, C21, C25, C26 ·Papers: P15

• BG Bunge Global SA high · $1.4B of debt comes due within a year against $890M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $488M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• SNX TD Synnex high · $1.0B of debt comes due within a year against $749M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $270M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• AVT Avnet high · $734M of debt comes due within a year against $237M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $497M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• MDLZ Mondelez International medium · $5.4B of debt comes due within a year against $1.7B of cash and investments and $3.7B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $68M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• LAD Lithia Motors medium · $134M of debt comes due within a year against $108M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $26M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• DUK Duke Energy high · $7.1B of debt comes due within a year against $451M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $6.7B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• SO Southern high · $6.2B of debt comes due within a year against $981M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $5.2B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• Pepco Holdings LLC high · $340M of debt comes due within a year against $25M of cash and investments: $315M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• EXC Exelon high · $1.7B of debt comes due within a year against $713M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $952M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• AN Autonation high · $630M of debt comes due within a year against $51M of cash and investments and $23M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $556M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• AZO AutoZone high · $1.6B of debt comes due within a year against $326M of cash and investments: $1.3B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• IP International Paper medium · $992M of debt comes due within a year against $815M of cash and investments and $75M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $102M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• PCG PG&E high · $3.7B of debt comes due within a year against $902M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $2.8B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• Novelis medium · $1.4B of debt comes due within a year against $1.3B of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $82M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises high · $3.2B of debt comes due within a year against $851M of cash and investments and $1.5B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $826M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• AEP American Electric Power high · $3.2B of debt comes due within a year against $516M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $2.7B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• EIX Edison International high · $1.9B of debt comes due within a year against $171M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $1.8B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• MAN ManpowerGroup high · $468M of debt comes due within a year against $233M of cash and investments and $7M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $228M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber medium · $1.2B of debt comes due within a year against $812M of cash and investments and $90M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $281M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• SAH Sonic Automotive high · $193M of debt comes due within a year against $11M of cash and investments and $91M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $91M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• FE Firstenergy high · $720M of debt comes due within a year against $52M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $668M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• HSIC Henry Schein high · $1.1B of debt comes due within a year against $184M of cash and investments and $559M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $399M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• FIS Fidelity National Information Services high · $5.6B of debt comes due within a year against $740M of cash and investments and $2.8B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $2.1B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• TAP Molson Coors Beverage high · $2.4B of debt comes due within a year against $602M of cash and investments and $1.2B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $653M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• WMB Williams Companies high · $1.3B of debt comes due within a year against $203M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $1.1B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• SRE Sempra high · $1.8B of debt comes due within a year against $34M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $1.8B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• PEG Public Service Enterprise Group medium · $875M of debt comes due within a year against $837M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $38M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings high · $876M of debt comes due within a year against $257M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $619M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• NCL high · $876M of debt comes due within a year against $251M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $625M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• AEE Ameren high · $973M of debt comes due within a year against $40M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $933M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• ANDE Andersons high · $518M of debt comes due within a year against $58M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $460M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• CRWV CoreWeave medium · $6.7B of debt comes due within a year against $5.5B of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $1.2B short, to be refinanced or raised.
• PPL PPL high · $904M of debt comes due within a year against $393M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $511M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• CNXC Concentrix medium · $866M of debt comes due within a year against $245M of cash and investments and $575M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $46M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• Oncor Electric Delivery Co LLC high · $238M of debt comes due within a year against $77M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $161M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• CPB Campbell's high · $773M of debt comes due within a year against $394M of cash and investments: $379M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• EVRG Evergy high · $367M of debt comes due within a year against $18M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $349M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• SON Sonoco Products medium · $538M of debt comes due within a year against $183M of cash and investments and $351M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $4M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• MKC McCormick high · $2.1B of debt comes due within a year against $331M of cash and investments and $1.1B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $640M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• OPTU Optimum Communications high · $6.4B of debt comes due within a year against $1.1B of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $5.3B short, to be refinanced or raised.

D03 · EPS growth = profit growth 8 of 4197

EPS rose while net income was flat or down and the share count fell: the growth is the smaller denominator. Cases: C15, C22

• BKNG Booking Holdings medium · EPS rose 7% in Q3 2026 (3.38 → 3.61) while net income fell 1% ($2.7B → $2.7B): the diluted share count fell 7.5%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• CSL Carlisle Companies medium · EPS rose 5% in Q3 2026 (4.99 → 5.25) while net income fell 3% ($214M → $208M): the diluted share count fell 7.7%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• VRSK Verisk Analytics medium · EPS rose 5% in Q3 2026 (1.61 → 1.70) while net income fell 3% ($226M → $219M): the diluted share count fell 7.7%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• DBX Dropbox medium · EPS rose 10% in Q3 2026 (0.47 → 0.52) while net income fell 6% ($124M → $116M): the diluted share count fell 15.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• PRKS United Parks & Resorts medium · EPS rose 8% in Q3 2026 (1.61 → 1.74) while net income fell 10% ($89M → $80M): the diluted share count fell 17.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• TREX Trex medium · EPS rose 7% in Q3 2026 (0.48 → 0.52) while net income was flat ($52M → $52M): the diluted share count fell 5.1%, and most of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings medium · EPS rose 6% in Q3 2026 (1.62 → 1.72) while net income was flat ($50M → $51M): the diluted share count fell 4.0%, and most of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• HMH HMH Holding medium · EPS rose 72% in Q3 2026 (0.23 → 0.40) while net income fell 69% ($16M → $5M): the diluted share count fell 82.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..

E02 · Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued 54 of 4197

A low P/E on this year's profit when that profit is at a high against the last eight years: the multiple on mid-cycle profit is what matters. Papers: P04, P07, P24

• CVS CVS Health medium · The shares trade at 9.5× this year's net income of $11.0B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $6.6B, on which the same market value is 15.8×.
• MPC Marathon Petroleum high · The shares trade at 7.2× this year's net income of $14.6B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $4.0B, on which the same market value is 26.1×.
• MU Micron Technology high · The shares trade at 8.8× this year's net income of $85.0B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $6.3B, on which the same market value is 119.1×.
• PSX Phillips 66 high · The shares trade at 7.8× this year's net income of $12.6B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $4.4B, on which the same market value is 22.3×.
• VLO Valero Energy high · The shares trade at 7.7× this year's net income of $12.9B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $2.8B, on which the same market value is 36.1×.
• SUN Sunoco LP medium · The shares trade at 10.0× this year's net income of $1.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $475M, on which the same market value is 24.5×.
• PAGP Plains GP Holdings LP high · The shares trade at 4.3× this year's net income of $1.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $198M, on which the same market value is 26.4×.
• PBF PBF Energy high · The shares trade at 3.1× this year's net income of $2.7B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $231M, on which the same market value is 36.3×.
• DINO HF Sinclair high · The shares trade at 4.9× this year's net income of $3.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $579M, on which the same market value is 29.7×.
• EOG EOG Resources medium · The shares trade at 9.2× this year's net income of $8.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $5.0B, on which the same market value is 15.2×.
• THC Tenet Healthcare high · The shares trade at 7.3× this year's net income of $3.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $611M, on which the same market value is 37.8×.
• EIX Edison International high · The shares trade at 5.0× this year's net income of $4.7B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $1.2B, on which the same market value is 19.6×.
• LDOS Leidos Holdings medium · The shares trade at 12.0× this year's net income of $1.4B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $685M, on which the same market value is 24.8×.
• DK Delek US Holdings high · The shares trade at 3.1× this year's net income of $1.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $20M, on which the same market value is 196.4×.
• AES AES high · The shares trade at 6.0× this year's net income of $1.8B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $303M, on which the same market value is 35.1×.
• AA Alcoa high · The shares trade at 6.9× this year's net income of $1.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $60M, on which the same market value is 175.3×.
• B Barrick Mining high · The shares trade at 9.4× this year's net income of $7.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $785M, on which the same market value is 86.1×.
• GAP Gap medium · The shares trade at 6.5× this year's net income of $1.2B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $502M, on which the same market value is 16.2×.
• DVA Davita medium · The shares trade at 10.0× this year's net income of $1.3B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $774M, on which the same market value is 16.2×.
• FIS Fidelity National Information Services high · The shares trade at 4.3× this year's net income of $3.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $382M, on which the same market value is 38.9×.
• PARR PAR Pacific Holdings high · The shares trade at 3.6× this year's net income of $948M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $41M, on which the same market value is 83.0×.
• ANDE Andersons medium · The shares trade at 9.6× this year's net income of $204M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $101M, on which the same market value is 19.3×.
• SEB Seaboard medium · The shares trade at 6.2× this year's net income of $558M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $283M, on which the same market value is 12.3×.
• SFM Sprouts Farmers Market medium · The shares trade at 9.3× this year's net income of $496M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $261M, on which the same market value is 17.7×.
• KBR KBR medium · The shares trade at 10.6× this year's net income of $442M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $202M, on which the same market value is 23.2×.
• MKC McCormick medium · The shares trade at 8.7× this year's net income of $1.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $755M, on which the same market value is 17.2×.
• REZI Resideo Technologies medium · The shares trade at 7.0× this year's net income of $427M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $210M, on which the same market value is 14.3×.
• HGV Hilton Grand Vacations medium · The shares trade at 8.3× this year's net income of $417M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $216M, on which the same market value is 16.1×.
• PR Permian Resources high · The shares trade at 11.3× this year's net income of $1.6B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $476M, on which the same market value is 39.0×.
• EQT EQT high · The shares trade at 11.8× this year's net income of $2.7B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $231M, on which the same market value is 135.9×.
• MMS Maximus medium · The shares trade at 9.3× this year's net income of $371M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $241M, on which the same market value is 14.3×.
• OTEX Open Text medium · The shares trade at 9.3× this year's net income of $652M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $397M, on which the same market value is 15.2×.
• FSLR First Solar high · The shares trade at 11.6× this year's net income of $1.9B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $469M, on which the same market value is 46.2×.
• KALU Kaiser Aluminum high · The shares trade at 8.3× this year's net income of $219M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $47M, on which the same market value is 38.5×.
• SKYW Skywest medium · The shares trade at 7.5× this year's net income of $413M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $280M, on which the same market value is 11.0×.
• KMT Kennametal high · The shares trade at 3.0× this year's net income of $599M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $118M, on which the same market value is 15.2×.
• ETSY Etsy high · The shares trade at 10.7× this year's net income of $987M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $303M, on which the same market value is 34.8×.
• NVST Envista Holdings high · The shares trade at 6.5× this year's net income of $634M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $218M, on which the same market value is 18.9×.
• KNTK Kinetik Holdings high · The shares trade at 6.7× this year's net income of $586M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $41M, on which the same market value is 97.0×.
• RJET Republic Airways Holdings high · The shares trade at 7.9× this year's net income of $119M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $27M, on which the same market value is 34.0×.

E07 · A precise DCF value = the true value 0 of 4197

A DCF's point value against the terminal value's weight and the swing from each input: a range, not a number (always 'to review'). Cases: C16, C17, C19, C27 ·Papers: P22

No company triggers it on the latest filings.

J06 · A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe 22 of 4197

A bank at a low P/E on its best year of the last eight: provisions, deposit costs and capital turn the cycle, not the multiple. Cases: C20

• MTB M&T Bank medium · The bank trades at 10.5× net income of $3.0B, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $2.0B).
• WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation medium · The bank trades at 8.2× net income of $1.0B, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $788M).
• ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association medium · The bank trades at 8.3× net income of $1.2B, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $850M).
• ATLC Atlanticus Holdings medium · The bank trades at 8.2× net income of $213M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $111M).
• UMBF UMB Financial medium · The bank trades at 10.3× net income of $1.0B, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $353M).
• ONB Old National Bancorp medium · The bank trades at 10.3× net income of $958M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $428M).
• COLB Columbia Banking System medium · The bank trades at 10.4× net income of $835M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $250M).
• VLY Valley National Bancorp medium · The bank trades at 10.6× net income of $737M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $474M).
• ECPG Encore Capital Group medium · The bank trades at 7.2× net income of $351M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $195M).
• FNB FNB medium · The bank trades at 10.8× net income of $607M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $439M).
• AX Axos Financial medium · The bank trades at 10.6× net income of $508M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $307M).
• AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares medium · The bank trades at 10.7× net income of $532M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $209M).
• WSBC Wesbanco medium · The bank trades at 9.8× net income of $362M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $159M).
• FIBK First Interstate Bancsystem medium · The bank trades at 10.4× net income of $315M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $202M).
• IBOC International Bancshares medium · The bank trades at 10.1× net income of $419M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $300M).
• MBIN Merchants Bancorp medium · The bank trades at 7.1× net income of $319M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $220M).
• OFG OFG Bancorp medium · The bank trades at 9.5× net income of $225M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $166M).
• NWBI Northwest Bancshares medium · The bank trades at 9.3× net income of $201M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $126M).
• TBBK Bancorp medium · The bank trades at 8.4× net income of $240M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $130M).
• AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage medium · The bank trades at 9.3× net income of $238M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $178M).
• MBWM Mercantile Bank medium · The bank trades at 10.5× net income of $96M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $61M).
• FNLC First Bancorp medium · The bank trades at 9.4× net income of $39M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $30M).

J08 · A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe 33 of 4197

A REIT paying more in dividends than its net income is normal; paying more than its operating cash flow is the question.

• WY Weyerhaeuser medium · Dividends of $606M exceeded operating cash flow of $562M in FY2025 (108%): the low net income ($324M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• RYN Rayonier medium · Dividends of $292M exceeded operating cash flow of $257M in FY2025 (114%): the low net income ($480M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust high · Dividends of $10M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$20M: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• AHT Ashford Hospitality Trust high · Dividends of $24M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$16M: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• SL Green Operating Partnership, L.P. medium · Dividends of $243M exceeded operating cash flow of $83M in FY2025 (293%): the low net income (−$97M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SLG SL Green Realty medium · Dividends of $243M exceeded operating cash flow of $83M in FY2025 (293%): the low net income (−$97M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• Ares Industrial Real Estate Income Trust medium · Dividends of $111M exceeded operating cash flow of $99M in FY2025 (112%): the low net income (−$162M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• HGIT Hines Global Income Trust medium · Dividends of $78M exceeded operating cash flow of $55M in FY2025 (143%): the low net income ($18M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SAFE Safehold medium · Dividends of $51M exceeded operating cash flow of $48M in FY2025 (107%): the low net income ($115M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• BHR Braemar Hotels & Resorts medium · Dividends of $47M exceeded operating cash flow of $41M in FY2025 (116%): the low net income (−$28M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• BRSP BrightSpire Capital medium · Dividends of $83M exceeded operating cash flow of $73M in FY2025 (114%): the low net income (−$39M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• Vinebrook Homes Trust medium · Dividends of $34M exceeded operating cash flow of $13M in FY2025 (268%): the low net income (−$193M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• ALX Alexanders medium · Dividends of $92M exceeded operating cash flow of $73M in FY2025 (126%): the low net income ($28M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• Cottonwood Communities high · Dividends of $18M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$21M: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust high · Dividends of $139M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$7.2B: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• FSP Franklin Street Properties medium · Dividends of $4M exceeded operating cash flow of $4M in FY2025 (110%): the low net income (−$45M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• BRT BRT Apartments medium · Dividends of $19M exceeded operating cash flow of $14M in FY2025 (134%): the low net income (−$12M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate medium · Dividends of $39M exceeded operating cash flow of $21M in FY2025 (183%): the low net income (−$902K) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• LAND Gladstone Land medium · Dividends of $20M exceeded operating cash flow of $7M in FY2025 (293%): the low net income ($14M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SACH Sachem Capital medium · Dividends of $10M exceeded operating cash flow of $3M in FY2025 (357%): the low net income ($6M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• FPI Farmland Partners medium · Dividends of $64M exceeded operating cash flow of $17M in FY2025 (366%): the low net income ($32M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SITC Site Centers medium · Dividends of $356M exceeded operating cash flow of $20M in FY2025 (1814%): the low net income ($178M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• Rreef Property Trust medium · Dividends of $9M exceeded operating cash flow of $9M in FY2025 (104%): the low net income ($21M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust medium · Dividends of $19M exceeded operating cash flow of $15M in FY2025 (125%): the low net income ($15M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SGST Strategic Storage Trust VI high · Dividends of $9M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$20M: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• FREVS First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey medium · Dividends of $7M exceeded operating cash flow of $6M in FY25 (115%): the low net income ($3M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• Principal Credit Real Estate Income Trust medium · Dividends of $5M exceeded operating cash flow of $4M in FY2025 (137%): the low net income ($4M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• ICR-PA InPoint Commercial Real Estate Income medium · Dividends of $13M exceeded operating cash flow of $11M in FY2025 (111%): the low net income (−$2M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• SUNS Sunrise Realty Trust high · Dividends of $15M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$3M: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• TPTS Terra Property Trust medium · Dividends of $12M exceeded operating cash flow of $2M in FY2025 (607%): the low net income (−$28M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• LOAN Manhattan Bridge Capital medium · Dividends of $5M exceeded operating cash flow of $5M in FY2025 (107%): the low net income ($5M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is..
• IHT Innsuites Hospitality Trust high · Dividends of $182K were paid in FY26 while operating cash flow was −$11K: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..
• StratCap Digital Infrastructure REIT high · Dividends of $4M were paid in FY2025 while operating cash flow was −$3M: the payout is funded by borrowing or asset sales, whatever net income says..

What a newer filing changed last 180 days

Each rule is re-run when a company files; a trap that appears, goes, or changes severity between two filings is listed here (a rule changed on this site is not).

• 2026-11-06 · LIDR B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (1630% against 912%) and DSO is 108 against a median of 70; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · AEVA B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (269% against 86%) and DSO is 75 against a median of 43; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · KRT B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 19% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 8%, and the quarter before 35% against 10%; days sales outstanding is 32 against a median of 27 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-06 · ASLE B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 17% against revenue 29% in Q3 2026; DSO 49 against a median of 51: collections are keeping pace with sales..
• 2026-11-06 · TEAM B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 51% year over year in Q1 FY27 against revenue growth of 24%, and the quarter before 63% against 28%; days sales outstanding is 54 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-06 · PRKS D03 EPS growth = profit growth: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) EPS rose 8% in Q3 2026 (1.61 → 1.74) while net income fell 10% ($89M → $80M): the diluted share count fell 17.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• 2026-11-06 · MTDR B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (94% against 24%) and DSO is 39 against a median of 31; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · DBX D03 EPS growth = profit growth: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) EPS rose 10% in Q3 2026 (0.47 → 0.52) while net income fell 6% ($124M → $116M): the diluted share count fell 15.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• 2026-11-06 · AOSL B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: severity changed (medium → high) on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 44% year over year in Q1 FY27 against revenue growth of -3%, and the quarter before 23% against -3%; days sales outstanding is 25 against a median of 18 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-06 · NOG B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (24% against -38%) and DSO is 105 against a median of 60; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · GEO B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables grew 20% against revenue 12% in Q3 2026; DSO 65 against a median of 57: collections are keeping pace with sales..
• 2026-11-06 · PAMT C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: severity changed (medium → high) on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) $66M of debt comes due within a year against $42M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $23M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• 2026-11-06 · UHS D03 EPS growth = profit growth: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) EPS fell 11% and net income fell 17% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 7.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth..
• 2026-11-06 · FICO C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) $338M of debt comes due within a year against $218M of cash and investments: $120M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• 2026-11-06 · HRTG D03 EPS growth = profit growth: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) EPS rose 6% in Q3 2026 (1.62 → 1.72) while net income was flat ($50M → $51M): the diluted share count fell 4.0%, and most of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator..
• 2026-11-06 · YORW C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) $330K of debt comes due within a year against $1K of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $329K short, to be refinanced or raised.
• 2026-11-06 · PCTY B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q1 FY27 (36% against 11%) and DSO is 11 against a median of 9; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · XPEL B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: severity changed (medium → high) on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 60% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 10%, and the quarter before 41% against 15%; days sales outstanding is 38 against a median of 28 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-06 · GPRE B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 7% against revenue -2% in Q3 2026; DSO 16 against a median of 15: collections are keeping pace with sales..
• 2026-11-06 · DKNG B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: severity changed (medium → high) on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables grew 53% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 16%, and the quarter before 19% against -5%; days sales outstanding is 6 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-06 · BWMN C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: severity changed (medium → high) on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) $24M of debt comes due within a year against $5M of cash and investments and $4M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $14M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• 2026-11-06 · CHTR D03 EPS growth = profit growth: no longer checkable on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning.
• 2026-11-06 · ENB C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) $5.0B comes due within a year, 1.1× covered by cash and investments of $4.9B plus $382M of free cash flow..
• 2026-11-06 · SARO B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 30% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 4%, and the quarter before 20% against 5%; days sales outstanding is 51 against a median of 42 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-06 · TXG B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (27% against 1%) and DSO is 32 against a median of 27; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · SMCI B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 284% against revenue 298% in Q1 FY27; DSO 36 against a median of 49: collections are keeping pace with sales..
• 2026-11-06 · GTE B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (80% against 13%) and DSO is 25 against a median of 22; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-06 · MET D03 EPS growth = profit growth: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) EPS rose 180% and net income rose 168% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 4.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth..
• 2026-11-05 · PLBY B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables grew 178% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 9%, and the quarter before 141% against 11%; days sales outstanding is 24 against a median of 12 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-05 · BIOA B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (10% against -85%) and DSO is 184 against a median of 24; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-05 · KNTK C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) $165M comes due within a year, 1.6× covered by cash and investments of $7M plus $265M of free cash flow..
• 2026-11-05 · CWH B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) Receivables grew 20% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -12%, and the quarter before 18% against -2%; days sales outstanding is 9 against a median of 8 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-05 · RLJ C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) $880M of debt comes due within a year against $448M of cash and investments and $182M of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $250M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• 2026-11-05 · AMPH D03 EPS growth = profit growth: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) EPS rose 139% and net income rose 118% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 9.0%: EPS growth follows profit growth..
• 2026-11-05 · CPAY C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) $5.2B of debt comes due within a year against $3.1B of cash and investments and $1.3B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $755M short, to be refinanced or raised.
• 2026-11-05 · PDFS B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables grew 29% against revenue 20% in Q3 2026; DSO 126 against a median of 117: collections are keeping pace with sales..
• 2026-11-05 · COTY C02 low net debt = no refinancing risk: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-09-30) $570M comes due within a year, 1.1× covered by cash and investments of $211M plus $422M of free cash flow..
• 2026-11-05 · VXRT B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: now to review on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (-51% against -85%) and DSO is 91 against a median of 19; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern..
• 2026-11-05 · CRK B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: newly triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables grew 8% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -14%, and the quarter before -5% against -25%; days sales outstanding is 33 against a median of 28 over the eight quarters before.
• 2026-11-05 · IONQ B02 receivables growing = future cash is certain: no longer triggered on the filing to 2026-09-30 (was 2026-06-30) Receivables grew 347% against revenue 336% in Q3 2026; DSO 72 against a median of 77: collections are keeping pace with sales..

Cases and papers

The public cases and the papers behind the rules → the mechanism, the misreading, what to check and the normal explanation, as the cited material states them.

Practice

Practice on real filings → the figures first, then a reader's conclusion, then your call; the answer comes with the innocent explanations and what would show the trap does not apply.

Method

Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.