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Tesla (TSLA): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 22, 2026; rules v1.1
Tesla (TSLA): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $2.6B (+74%), from $3.6B to $6.2B, but capital expenditure fell by $2.8B: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $172M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 8.85 a share (price 343.69). Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 1.32 to 16.38; across every method the research ran the range is -27 to 600. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $2.6B (+74%), from $3.6B to $6.2B, but capital expenditure fell by $2.8B: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $172M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $14.9B |
| Operating cash flow | $14.7B |
| Capex, year before | $11.3B |
| Capex | $8.5B |
| Free cash flow, year before | $3.6B |
| Free cash flow | $6.2B |
| Change in FCF | $2.6B |
| Change in capex | −$2.8B |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$4M |
| Of which: capex cut | $2.8B |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +106.7% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -172000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 3.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $2.8B |
| Revenue | $94.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +3.0% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 3,498.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 3,528.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -1% against revenue 0% in Q3 2026; DSO 14 against a median of 15: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -0.2% |
| Receivables, year over year | -1.4% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +25.5% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +6.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 14.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 15.4 |
| Receivables | $4.6B |
| Revenue | $28.0B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$1.6B comes due within a year, 30.9× covered by cash and investments of $45.4B plus $3.3B of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $45.4B |
| Debt | $8.0B |
| Net debt | −$37.5B |
| Due within a year | $1.6B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $3.3B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $48.8B |
| Coverage of what is due | 30.9 |
| Due in the second year | $1.2B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 43% and net income fell 43% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 0.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.39 |
| EPS | $0.22 |
| Net income, year before | $1.4B |
| Net income | $787M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 3,526.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 3,541.0M shares |
| EPS growth | -42.9% |
| Net income growth | -42.7% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.4% |
| eps from profit | -$0.17 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $3.3B is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $5.5B, best $15.0B): the P/E of 371.2× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $1.22T |
| net income ttm | $3.3B |
| pe ttm | 371.20 |
| net income median fy | $5.5B |
| pe mid cycle | 220.50 |
| net income peak fy | $15.0B |
| years | FY2018 / -976.0; FY2019 / -862.0; FY2020 / 721.0; FY2021 / 5519.0; FY2022 / 12556.0; FY2023 / 14997.0; FY2024 / 7091.0; FY2025 / 3794.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 8.85 a share (price 343.69). Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 1.32 to 16.38; across every method the research ran the range is -27 to 600. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 8.85 |
| price | 343.69 |
| terminal value share | — |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 1.32 / 16.38; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 7.56 / 10.14; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 8.11 / 9.59; WACC / ±1 pt / 8.29 / 9.6 |
| range all methods | -27.21; 600.0 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Tesla: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.