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Alcoa (AA): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026; rules v1.1
Alcoa (AA): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
The shares trade at 6.9× this year's net income of $1.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $60M, on which the same market value is 175.3×. A low multiple of peak profit is not a low multiple of normal profit.
Innocent reading: The business has changed for good (a merger, a new line, a pricing regime) and the old years are not its normal.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $525M to $567M; working capital and lower capex explain 28% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $622M |
| Operating cash flow | $1.2B |
| Capex, year before | $580M |
| Capex | $618M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $42M |
| Free cash flow | $567M |
| Change in FCF | $525M |
| Change in capex | $38M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $146M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | $146M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +27.8% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 417000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $41M |
| Revenue | $12.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.3% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 214.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 261.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +22.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 29% against revenue 24% in Q3 2026; DSO 36 against a median of 31: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +23.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +29.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +31.4% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +57.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 35.9 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 31.1 |
| Receivables | $1.3B |
| Revenue | $3.7B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$1M comes due within a year, 5298.0× covered by cash and investments of $4.4B plus $890M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $4.4B |
| Debt | $2.4B |
| Net debt | −$2.0B |
| Due within a year | $1M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $890M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $5.3B |
| Coverage of what is due | 5298.0 |
| Due in the second year | 0 |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Triggered severity high · confidence medium
The shares trade at 6.9× this year's net income of $1.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $60M, on which the same market value is 175.3×. A low multiple of peak profit is not a low multiple of normal profit.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $10.5B |
| net income ttm | $1.5B |
| pe ttm | 6.90 |
| net income median fy | $60M |
| pe mid cycle | 175.30 |
| net income peak fy | $1.2B |
| years | FY2018 / 227.0; FY2019 / -1125.0; FY2020 / -170.0; FY2021 / 429.0; FY2022 / -123.0; FY2023 / -651.0; FY2024 / 60.0; FY2025 / 1157.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would explain it innocently
- The business has changed for good (a merger, a new line, a pricing regime) and the old years are not its normal
- The market is right that profit will fall, and the price already says so
- Capacity has left the industry, so the cycle's trough is higher than before
What to look for in the filing
- Where the industry's prices and volumes stand against their own history
- Capacity on order across the industry
- Management's view of the cycle in the MD&A
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Alcoa: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.