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Kaiser Aluminum (KALU): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 22, 2026; rules v1.1
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
The shares trade at 8.3× this year's net income of $219M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $47M, on which the same market value is 38.5×. A low multiple of peak profit is not a low multiple of normal profit.
Innocent reading: The business has changed for good (a merger, a new line, a pricing regime) and the old years are not its normal.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 399.24 a share (price 107.61); 79% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 209.50 to 588.97; across every method the research ran the range is -19 to 1,999. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise (−$14M → −$26M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $167M |
| Operating cash flow | $111M |
| Capex, year before | $181M |
| Capex | $137M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$14M |
| Free cash flow | −$26M |
| Change in FCF | −$12M |
| Change in capex | −$44M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$112M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.5% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $18M |
| Revenue | $3.4B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.5% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 16.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 16.6M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 37% against revenue 44% in Q3 2026; DSO 42 against a median of 40: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +44.0% |
| Receivables, year over year | +36.7% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +52.7% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +51.8% |
| Days sales outstanding | 41.9 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 40.1 |
| Receivables | $532M |
| Revenue | $1.2B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 23% and net income fell 22% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 1.6%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $2.38 |
| EPS | $1.84 |
| Net income, year before | $40M |
| Net income | $31M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 16.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 16.9M shares |
| EPS growth | -22.8% |
| Net income growth | -21.5% |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.7% |
| eps from profit | -$0.51 |
| eps from share count | -$0.03 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Triggered severity high · confidence medium
The shares trade at 8.3× this year's net income of $219M, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $47M, on which the same market value is 38.5×. A low multiple of peak profit is not a low multiple of normal profit.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $1.8B |
| net income ttm | $219M |
| pe ttm | 8.30 |
| net income median fy | $47M |
| pe mid cycle | 38.50 |
| net income peak fy | $112M |
| years | FY2018 / 92.0; FY2019 / 62.0; FY2020 / 29.0; FY2021 / -18.0; FY2022 / -30.0; FY2023 / 47.0; FY2024 / 47.0; FY2025 / 112.0 |
| down years in window | 5 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would explain it innocently
- The business has changed for good (a merger, a new line, a pricing regime) and the old years are not its normal
- The market is right that profit will fall, and the price already says so
- Capacity has left the industry, so the cycle's trough is higher than before
What to look for in the filing
- Where the industry's prices and volumes stand against their own history
- Capacity on order across the industry
- Management's view of the cycle in the MD&A
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 399.24 a share (price 107.61); 79% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 209.50 to 588.97; across every method the research ran the range is -19 to 1,999. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 399.24 |
| price | 107.61 |
| terminal value share | +78.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 209.5 / 588.97; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 327.53 / 482.67; WACC / ±1 pt / 337.01 / 482.81; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 357.66 / 440.81 |
| range all methods | -18.82; 1998.66 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Kaiser Aluminum: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.