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HMH Holding (HMH): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
HMH Holding (HMH): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: EPS growth = profit growth; 7 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
EPS growth = profit growth Triggered · severity medium · confidence high
EPS rose 72% in Q3 2026 (0.23 → 0.40) while net income fell 69% ($16M → $5M): the diluted share count fell 82.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator.
Innocent reading: Buybacks at prices below the shares' value do add value per share; the question is the price paid and how they were financed.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no balance-sheet cash or debt on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Triggered severity medium · confidence high
EPS rose 72% in Q3 2026 (0.23 → 0.40) while net income fell 69% ($16M → $5M): the diluted share count fell 82.1%, and all of the EPS growth is the smaller denominator.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.23 |
| EPS | $0.40 |
| Net income, year before | $16M |
| Net income | $5M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 69.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 12.4M shares |
| EPS growth | +72.1% |
| Net income growth | -69.2% |
| Diluted shares: change | -82.1% |
| eps from profit | -$0.16 |
| eps from share count | $0.33 |
| EPS growth from the share count | +141.3% |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Buybacks at prices below the shares' value do add value per share; the question is the price paid and how they were financed
- A one-off item depressed this quarter's net income
- Shares were cancelled after a disposal whose proceeds were returned
What to look for in the filing
- The average price paid for the buybacks against the shares' value
- Whether the buybacks were funded by debt
- Next quarter's net income trend
What would show the trap does not apply
- Net income grows at the pace of EPS in the next two quarters
- The buybacks were made below the shares' later value (the share count fell and book value per share rose)
Look again: next filing.
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.