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Super Micro Computer (SMCI): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q1 FY27, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 6, 2026; rules v1.1
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 95.79 a share (price 27.08); 72% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 59.94 to 131.64; across every method the research ran the range is -78 to 1,012. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($1.5B → −$7.0B): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY25 |
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $1.7B |
| Operating cash flow | −$6.8B |
| Capex, year before | $127M |
| Capex | $162M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.5B |
| Free cash flow | −$7.0B |
| Change in FCF | −$8.5B |
| Change in capex | $35M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$9.8B |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.1% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Stock compensation | $412M |
| Revenue | $39.1B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.1% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 628.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 697.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +11.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 284% against revenue 298% in Q1 FY27; DSO 36 against a median of 49: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q1 FY27 |
| Revenue, year over year | +297.5% |
| Receivables, year over year | +283.6% |
| Quarter before | Q4 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +93.2% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +177.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 36.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 49.1 |
| Receivables | $9.7B |
| Revenue | $19.9B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q1 FY27 (receivables and revenue) · Q1 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 737% and net income rose 847% in Q1 FY27; the share count rose 13.0%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q1 FY27 |
| Quarter before | Q1 FY26 |
| EPS, year before | $0.25 |
| EPS | $2.13 |
| Net income, year before | $168M |
| Net income | $1.6B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 663.2M shares |
| Diluted shares | 749.4M shares |
| EPS growth | +737.4% |
| Net income growth | +847.3% |
| Diluted shares: change | +13.0% |
| eps from profit | $2.15 |
| eps from share count | -$0.28 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q1 FY27 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q1 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $3.7B is a high, but the last eight years rose almost every year (median $640M): a steady climb, not a cycle's top, so the P/E of 5.5× is not on peak profit in that sense.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $20.3B |
| net income ttm | $3.7B |
| pe ttm | 5.50 |
| net income median fy | $640M |
| pe mid cycle | 31.70 |
| net income peak fy | $2.2B |
| years | FY19 / 72.0; FY20 / 84.0; FY21 / 112.0; FY22 / 285.0; FY23 / 640.0; FY24 / 1153.0; FY25 / 1049.0; FY26 / 2230.0 |
| down years in window | 1 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q1 FY27 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 95.79 a share (price 27.08); 72% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 59.94 to 131.64; across every method the research ran the range is -78 to 1,012. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 95.79 |
| price | 27.08 |
| terminal value share | +71.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 59.94 / 131.64; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 81.97 / 111.82; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 85.64 / 105.94; WACC / ±1 pt / 86.98 / 106.4 |
| range all methods | -78.2; 1011.62 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Super Micro Computer: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.