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Steven Madden (SHOO): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 6, 2026; rules v1.1
Steven Madden (SHOO): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew 31% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 16%, and the quarter before 38% against 19%; days sales outstanding is 1 against a median of 1 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $177M is at a high against a median of $121M over eight years; at 16.2× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (23.7×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 47.05 a share (price 39.50); 75% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 29.66 to 64.43; across every method the research ran the range is -42 to 247. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($172M → $120M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $198M |
| Operating cash flow | $162M |
| Capex, year before | $26M |
| Capex | $43M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $172M |
| Free cash flow | $120M |
| Change in FCF | −$53M |
| Change in capex | $17M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$16M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.2% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $30M |
| Revenue | $2.5B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.2% |
| Buybacks | $14M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.5 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 72.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 71.2M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.1% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew 31% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 16%, and the quarter before 38% against 19%; days sales outstanding is 1 against a median of 1 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +15.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +31.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +19.1% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +37.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 1.0 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 0.8 |
| Receivables | $8M |
| Revenue | $773M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
Nothing comes due within a year; net debt is $8M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $112M |
| Debt | $120M |
| Net debt | $8M |
| Due within a year | 0 |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $205M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $317M |
| Coverage of what is due | — |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-09-30 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 151% and net income rose 155% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 2.0%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.29 |
| EPS | $0.72 |
| Net income, year before | $21M |
| Net income | $52M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 71.2M shares |
| Diluted shares | 72.6M shares |
| EPS growth | +150.7% |
| Net income growth | +155.3% |
| Diluted shares: change | +2.0% |
| eps from profit | $0.45 |
| eps from share count | -$0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $177M is at a high against a median of $121M over eight years; at 16.2× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (23.7×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $2.9B |
| net income ttm | $177M |
| pe ttm | 16.20 |
| net income median fy | $121M |
| pe mid cycle | 23.70 |
| net income peak fy | $141M |
| years | FY2016 / 121.0; FY2017 / 118.0; FY2018 / 129.0; FY2019 / 141.0; FY2020 / -18.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 47.05 a share (price 39.50); 75% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 29.66 to 64.43; across every method the research ran the range is -42 to 247. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 47.05 |
| price | 39.50 |
| terminal value share | +74.7% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 29.66 / 64.43; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 39.12 / 56.4; WACC / ±1 pt / 41.1 / 54.87; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 43.68 / 50.41 |
| range all methods | -42.4; 247.29 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Steven Madden: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.