Filing Flows › Companies › Frontier Group Holdings › Analysis traps
Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 28, 2026; rules v1.1
Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain; 2 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew 78% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 53%, and the quarter before 50% against 38%; days sales outstanding is 11 against a median of 9 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise (−$158M → −$600M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | −$82M |
| Operating cash flow | −$525M |
| Capex, year before | $76M |
| Capex | $75M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$158M |
| Free cash flow | −$600M |
| Change in FCF | −$442M |
| Change in capex | −$1M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$98M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.6% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $21M |
| Revenue | $3.7B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.6% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 226.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 227.8M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.6% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew 78% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 53%, and the quarter before 50% against 38%; days sales outstanding is 11 against a median of 9 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +52.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | +78.5% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +37.7% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +50.0% |
| Days sales outstanding | 10.6 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 9.2 |
| Receivables | $166M |
| Revenue | $1.4B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$303M comes due within a year, 3.2× covered by cash and investments of $976M plus $2M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $976M |
| Debt | $486M |
| Net debt | −$490M |
| Due within a year | $303M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $2M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $978M |
| Coverage of what is due | 3.2 |
| Due in the second year | $63M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Frontier Group Holdings: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.