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Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): analysis traps

Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: low net debt = no refinancing risk; low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.

Check these first

Every rule

A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium

Free cash flow rose $376M to $2.5B; working capital and lower capex explain 26% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.

A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high

Stock compensation is 1.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.

B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data

fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)

B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data

no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS

C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered severity high · confidence medium

$5.6B of debt comes due within a year against $740M of cash and investments and $2.8B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $2.1B short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $20.0B says nothing about when the debt falls due.

What would explain it innocently

• A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet)
• The notes are routinely rolled over in the commercial-paper or bond market at an investment-grade rating
• Cash held abroad or in subsidiaries can be moved to where the debt is
• A sale of a business or asset already agreed brings the cash

What to look for in the filing

• Undrawn committed facilities and their covenants
• The cost and rating of the refinancing
• Restricted cash and the operating minimum

What would show the trap does not apply

• The 10-K lists an undrawn credit facility that covers the debt due, or the maturity is refinanced before it falls due
• Cash plus FCF of the next quarter exceeds the debt due within a year

Look again: next filing.

D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high

EPS rose 36% and net income rose 35% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 1.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.

E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Triggered severity high · confidence medium

The shares trade at 4.3× this year's net income of $3.5B, but that profit is at a high: the median of the last eight fiscal years is $382M, on which the same market value is 38.9×. A low multiple of peak profit is not a low multiple of normal profit.

What would explain it innocently

• The business has changed for good (a merger, a new line, a pricing regime) and the old years are not its normal
• The market is right that profit will fall, and the price already says so
• Capacity has left the industry, so the cycle's trough is higher than before

What to look for in the filing

• Where the industry's prices and volumes stand against their own history
• Capacity on order across the industry
• Management's view of the cycle in the MD&A

What would show the trap does not apply

• Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
• The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting

Look again: next filing.

E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high

The DCF's point value is 102.38 a share (price 28.73); 65% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 78.68 to 142.11; across every method the research ran the range is -11 to 321. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.

What would explain it innocently

• A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
• The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)

What to look for in the filing

• Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
• What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)

What would show the trap does not apply

• The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
• The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years

Look again: next filing.

J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable

not a bank

J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable

not a REIT

What the statuses mean

Record a view

Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Fidelity National Information Services: cash flow →

Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.