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Nutanix (NTNX): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q4 FY26, to Jul 31, 2026, filed Sep 18, 2026; rules v1.1
Nutanix (NTNX): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jul 31, 2026: adjusted profit = economic profit. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Adjusted profit = economic profit Triggered · severity medium · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 44% above). Costs excluded every quarter (restructuring, stock compensation, amortisation of acquired intangibles, litigation) are a recurring cost of the business, not a one-off.
Innocent reading: A genuine one-off this year (an impairment, a settlement) that happens to span several quarters.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 23.38 a share (price 58.37); 69% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 18.65 to 28.11; across every method the research ran the range is 7 to 380. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow rose $91M to $841M; working capital and lower capex explain 30% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY25 |
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $821M |
| Operating cash flow | $917M |
| Capex, year before | $71M |
| Capex | $76M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $750M |
| Free cash flow | $841M |
| Change in FCF | $91M |
| Change in capex | $5M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $27M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | $27M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +30.3% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 67813000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 12.5% of revenue, but buybacks of $484M covered it (1.4×) and the diluted share count fell 0.6%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Stock compensation | $358M |
| Revenue | $2.9B |
| SBC / revenue | +12.5% |
| Buybacks | $484M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 1.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 294,083 shares |
| Diluted shares | 292,183 shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -14% against revenue 16% in Q4 FY26; DSO 33 against a median of 38: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q4 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | +15.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | -14.4% |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +10.0% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -6.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 32.9 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 38.0 |
| Receivables | $289M |
| Revenue | $757M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q4 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q4 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Triggered severity medium · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 44% above). Costs excluded every quarter (restructuring, stock compensation, amortisation of acquired intangibles, litigation) are a recurring cost of the business, not a one-off.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-10-31 / 0.41 / 0.21 / 0.488; 2026-01-31 / 0.56 / 0.36 / 0.357; 2026-04-30 / 0.47 / 0.25 / 0.468 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 3 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +46.8% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-10-31 (adjusted 0.41 vs GAAP 0.21) · 2026-01-31 (adjusted 0.56 vs GAAP 0.36) · 2026-04-30 (adjusted 0.47 vs GAAP 0.25)
What would explain it innocently
- A genuine one-off this year (an impairment, a settlement) that happens to span several quarters
- Amortisation of acquired intangibles, which many investors also exclude by choice
- The analysts' 'actual' is not the company's own adjusted figure
What to look for in the filing
- The reconciliation table in the earnings release: which items, how much, how often
- Whether the same items were excluded in earlier years
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 18% and net income rose 14% in Q3 FY26; the share count fell 3.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $0.21 |
| EPS | $0.25 |
| Net income, year before | $63M |
| Net income | $72M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 296.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 287.5M shares |
| EPS growth | +17.8% |
| Net income growth | +13.8% |
| Diluted shares: change | -3.1% |
| eps from profit | $0.03 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 23.38 a share (price 58.37); 69% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 18.65 to 28.11; across every method the research ran the range is 7 to 380. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 23.38 |
| price | 58.37 |
| terminal value share | +69.2% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 18.65 / 28.11; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 20.87 / 26.35; WACC / ±1 pt / 21.71 / 25.53; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 22.86 / 23.9 |
| range all methods | 7.11; 380.07 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Nutanix: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.