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Hyatt Hotels (H): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026; rules v1.1
Hyatt Hotels (H): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 44% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -2%, and the quarter before 16% against 1%; days sales outstanding is 66 against a median of 56 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($463M → $159M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $633M |
| Operating cash flow | $379M |
| Capex, year before | $170M |
| Capex | $220M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $463M |
| Free cash flow | $159M |
| Change in FCF | −$304M |
| Change in capex | $50M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$63M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $74M |
| Revenue | $7.1B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.0% |
| Buybacks | $293M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 4.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 102.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 95.5M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -6.8% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 44% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -2%, and the quarter before 16% against 1%; days sales outstanding is 66 against a median of 56 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -2.4% |
| Receivables, year over year | +44.0% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +1.2% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +16.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 65.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 56.2 |
| Receivables | $1.3B |
| Revenue | $1.7B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$4M comes due within a year, 169.8× covered by cash and investments of $495M plus $184M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $495M |
| Debt | $4.4B |
| Net debt | $3.9B |
| Due within a year | $4M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $184M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $679M |
| Coverage of what is due | 169.8 |
| Due in the second year | $604M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $186M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $455M, best $1.3B): the P/E of 96.1× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $17.9B |
| net income ttm | $186M |
| pe ttm | 96.10 |
| net income median fy | $455M |
| pe mid cycle | 39.30 |
| net income peak fy | $1.3B |
| years | FY2018 / 769.0; FY2019 / 766.0; FY2020 / -703.0; FY2021 / -222.0; FY2022 / 455.0; FY2023 / 220.0; FY2024 / 1296.0; FY2025 / -52.0 |
| down years in window | 4 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Hyatt Hotels: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.