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Encore Capital Group (ECPG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Encore Capital Group (ECPG): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe; 2 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Triggered · severity medium · confidence low
The bank trades at 7.2× net income of $351M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $195M). Bank profit at the top of a credit cycle carries low provisions and cheap deposits; the P/E says nothing about the loan book, the deposit costs or the capital that decide the next part of the cycle.
Innocent reading: Higher rates lifted net interest income for good, not for a cycle.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not applicable
a financial company: free cash flow after capex is not the measure of its business
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $18M |
| Revenue | $1.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.0% |
| Buybacks | $90M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 5.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 23.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 23.5M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not applicable
a financial company: receivables and DSO are not its working capital
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$21M comes due within a year, 14.6× covered by cash and investments of $158M plus $151M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $158M |
| Debt | $4.0B |
| Net debt | $3.9B |
| Due within a year | $21M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $151M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $310M |
| Coverage of what is due | 14.6 |
| Due in the second year | $20M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 76% and net income rose 66% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 5.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $3.17 |
| EPS | $5.57 |
| Net income, year before | $75M |
| Net income | $124M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 23.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 22.3M shares |
| EPS growth | +75.5% |
| Net income growth | +66.1% |
| Diluted shares: change | -5.4% |
| eps from profit | $2.10 |
| eps from share count | $0.30 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a financial company: J06 reads its cycle instead
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Triggered severity medium · confidence low
The bank trades at 7.2× net income of $351M, its best or near-best year of the last eight (median $195M). Bank profit at the top of a credit cycle carries low provisions and cheap deposits; the P/E says nothing about the loan book, the deposit costs or the capital that decide the next part of the cycle.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $2.5B |
| net income ttm | $351M |
| pe ttm | 7.20 |
| net income median fy | $195M |
| pe mid cycle | 13.10 |
| years | FY2018 / 116.0; FY2019 / 168.0; FY2020 / 212.0; FY2021 / 351.0; FY2022 / 195.0; FY2023 / -206.0; FY2024 / -139.0; FY2025 / 257.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
a bank's P/E on trailing net income against the P/E on its median net income of the last eight years; credit losses, deposit costs and capital are what turn the cycle, none of which the P/E shows
Source: Q3 2026 (net income)
What would explain it innocently
- Higher rates lifted net interest income for good, not for a cycle
- The bank's mix (fees, wealth management) is less cyclical than a lender's
- Provisions are already at a normal level and reserves are full
What to look for in the filing
- The allowance for credit losses against loans and its trend
- Deposit costs and the share of uninsured deposits
- CET1 and the loan book's concentration (CRE, construction, consumer)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Provisions and net charge-offs stay at this year's level through the next two years and capital ratios hold
- Net interest margin holds while deposit costs rise
Look again: next filing.
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Encore Capital Group: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.