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Altria Group (MO): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026; rules v1.1
Altria Group (MO): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 37% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 1%, and the quarter before 27% against 0%; days sales outstanding is 5 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 122.87 a share (price 77.58); 84% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 92.09 to 179.76; across every method the research ran the range is -4 to 285. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $463M to $9.1B; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $8.8B |
| Operating cash flow | $9.3B |
| Capex, year before | $142M |
| Capex | $216M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $8.6B |
| Free cash flow | $9.1B |
| Change in FCF | $463M |
| Change in capex | $74M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$1.4B |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.0% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 1956000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 37% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 1%, and the quarter before 27% against 0%; days sales outstanding is 5 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +1.0% |
| Receivables, year over year | +37.4% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +0.1% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +27.0% |
| Days sales outstanding | 4.9 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 3.7 |
| Receivables | $342M |
| Revenue | $6.1B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$1.6B comes due within a year, 7.5× covered by cash and investments of $2.7B plus $9.1B of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $2.7B |
| Debt | $24.1B |
| Net debt | $21.4B |
| Due within a year | $1.6B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $9.1B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $11.8B |
| Coverage of what is due | 7.5 |
| Due in the second year | $1.2B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 7% and net income rose 6% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 0.7%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $1.41 |
| EPS | $1.51 |
| Net income, year before | $2.4B |
| Net income | $2.5B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 1,680.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 1,669.0M shares |
| EPS growth | +6.7% |
| Net income growth | +6.0% |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.7% |
| eps from profit | $0.09 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $8.1B is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $6.9B, best $11.3B): the P/E of 16.0× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $129.5B |
| net income ttm | $8.1B |
| pe ttm | 16.00 |
| net income median fy | $6.9B |
| pe mid cycle | 18.60 |
| net income peak fy | $11.3B |
| years | FY2018 / 6963.0; FY2019 / -1293.0; FY2020 / 4467.0; FY2021 / 2475.0; FY2022 / 5764.0; FY2023 / 8130.0; FY2024 / 11264.0; FY2025 / 6947.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 122.87 a share (price 77.58); 84% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 92.09 to 179.76; across every method the research ran the range is -4 to 285. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 122.87 |
| price | 77.58 |
| terminal value share | +84.0% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 92.09 / 179.76; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 94.71 / 156.94; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 109.4 / 141.03; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 113.99 / 131.75 |
| range all methods | -4.32; 284.73 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Altria Group: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.