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Dell Technologies (DELL): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 FY27, to Jul 31, 2026, filed Sep 8, 2026; rules v1.1
Dell Technologies (DELL): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jul 31, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 3 to review; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $6.7B (+358%), from $1.9B to $8.6B, but working capital released $6.8B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $19M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $176M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
Adjusted profit = economic profit To review · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 1 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $11.4B is at a high against a median of $4.6B over eight years; at 18.2× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (45.0×).
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $6.7B (+358%), from $1.9B to $8.6B, but working capital released $6.8B more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $19M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $176M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY25 |
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $4.5B |
| Operating cash flow | $11.2B |
| Capex, year before | $2.7B |
| Capex | $2.6B |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.9B |
| Free cash flow | $8.6B |
| Change in FCF | $6.7B |
| Change in capex | −$19M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $6.8B |
| Of which: capex cut | $19M |
| Of which: working capital released | $6.8B |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +102.6% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -176000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.6% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Stock compensation | $723M |
| Revenue | $113.5B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.6% |
| Buybacks | $6.0B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 8.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 720.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 684.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -5.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 53% against revenue 58% in Q2 FY27; DSO 47 against a median of 41: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 FY27 |
| Revenue, year over year | +57.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | +52.5% |
| Quarter before | Q1 FY27 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +87.5% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +164.2% |
| Days sales outstanding | 47.2 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 40.9 |
| Receivables | $22.9B |
| Revenue | $47.0B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 FY27 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit To review confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 1 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-10-31 / 2.59 / 2.28 / 0.12; 2026-04-30 / 4.86 / 5.24 / -0.078; 2026-07-31 / 7.04 / 6.34 / 0.099 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 1 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +9.9% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-10-31 (adjusted 2.59 vs GAAP 2.28) · 2026-04-30 (adjusted 4.86 vs GAAP 5.24) · 2026-07-31 (adjusted 7.04 vs GAAP 6.34)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$8.0B comes due within a year, 2.5× covered by cash and investments of $11.6B plus $8.6B of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $11.6B |
| Debt | $34.5B |
| Net debt | $22.9B |
| Due within a year | $8.0B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $8.6B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $20.1B |
| Coverage of what is due | 2.5 |
| Due in the second year | $3.0B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-07-31 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY26 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 274% and net income rose 255% in Q2 FY27; the share count fell 5.0%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 FY27 |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| EPS, year before | $1.70 |
| EPS | $6.34 |
| Net income, year before | $1.2B |
| Net income | $4.1B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 686.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 652.0M shares |
| EPS growth | +273.5% |
| Net income growth | +255.1% |
| Diluted shares: change | -5.0% |
| eps from profit | $4.33 |
| eps from share count | $0.31 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 FY27 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $11.4B is at a high against a median of $4.6B over eight years; at 18.2× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (45.0×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $206.6B |
| net income ttm | $11.4B |
| pe ttm | 18.20 |
| net income median fy | $4.6B |
| pe mid cycle | 45.00 |
| net income peak fy | $5.9B |
| years | FY19 / -2310.0; FY20 / 4616.0; FY21 / 3250.0; FY22 / 5563.0; FY23 / 2442.0; FY24 / 3211.0; FY25 / 4592.0; FY26 / 5936.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q2 FY27 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 371.55 a share (price 316.91); 75% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 229.78 to 513.32; across every method the research ran the range is -185 to 2,028. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 371.55 |
| price | 316.91 |
| terminal value share | +74.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 229.78 / 513.32; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 307.94 / 445.47; WACC / ±1 pt / 327.46 / 426.31; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 337.6 / 405.5 |
| range all methods | -184.84; 2027.66 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Dell Technologies: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.