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RB Global (RBA): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 4, 2026; rules v1.1
RB Global (RBA): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: adjusted profit = economic profit. 2 to review; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Adjusted profit = economic profit Triggered · severity medium · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 42% above). Costs excluded every quarter (restructuring, stock compensation, amortisation of acquired intangibles, litigation) are a recurring cost of the business, not a one-off.
Innocent reading: A genuine one-off this year (an impairment, a settlement) that happens to span several quarters.
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $484M is at a high against a median of $206M over eight years; at 36.1× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (84.6×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 58.07 a share (price 93.44); 68% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 45.39 to 73.15; across every method the research ran the range is 17 to 232. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($765M → $719M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $932M |
| Operating cash flow | $978M |
| Capex, year before | $167M |
| Capex | $259M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $765M |
| Free cash flow | $719M |
| Change in FCF | −$45M |
| Change in capex | $92M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$222M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.4% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $66M |
| Revenue | $4.6B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.4% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 185.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 186.9M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 12% against revenue 11% in Q2 2026; DSO 60 against a median of 59: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +11.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | +11.5% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +11.4% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +16.2% |
| Days sales outstanding | 60.4 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 58.9 |
| Receivables | $854M |
| Revenue | $1.3B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Triggered severity medium · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was at least 10% above GAAP in 3 of the last 3 quarters (on average 42% above). Costs excluded every quarter (restructuring, stock compensation, amortisation of acquired intangibles, litigation) are a recurring cost of the business, not a one-off.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.93 / 0.43 / 0.538; 2026-03-31 / 1.01 / 0.66 / 0.347; 2026-06-30 / 1.13 / 0.71 / 0.372 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 3 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +37.2% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.93 vs GAAP 0.43) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 1.01 vs GAAP 0.66) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 1.13 vs GAAP 0.71)
What would explain it innocently
- A genuine one-off this year (an impairment, a settlement) that happens to span several quarters
- Amortisation of acquired intangibles, which many investors also exclude by choice
- The analysts' 'actual' is not the company's own adjusted figure
What to look for in the filing
- The reconciliation table in the earnings release: which items, how much, how often
- Whether the same items were excluded in earlier years
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$51M comes due within a year, 22.2× covered by cash and investments of $525M plus $611M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $525M |
| Debt | $2.9B |
| Net debt | $2.4B |
| Due within a year | $51M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $611M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $1.1B |
| Coverage of what is due | 22.2 |
| Due in the second year | $51M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 31% and net income rose 31% in Q2 2026; the share count rose 0.2%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q2 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.59 |
| EPS | $0.77 |
| Net income, year before | $110M |
| Net income | $144M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 186.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 186.9M shares |
| EPS growth | +30.6% |
| Net income growth | +30.7% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.2% |
| eps from profit | $0.18 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $484M is at a high against a median of $206M over eight years; at 36.1× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (84.6×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $17.5B |
| net income ttm | $484M |
| pe ttm | 36.10 |
| net income median fy | $206M |
| pe mid cycle | 84.60 |
| net income peak fy | $428M |
| years | FY2018 / 121.0; FY2019 / 149.0; FY2020 / 170.0; FY2021 / 152.0; FY2022 / 320.0; FY2023 / 206.0; FY2024 / 413.0; FY2025 / 428.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 58.07 a share (price 93.44); 68% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 45.39 to 73.15; across every method the research ran the range is 17 to 232. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 58.07 |
| price | 93.44 |
| terminal value share | +67.8% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 45.39 / 73.15; WACC / ±1 pt / 47.8 / 73.21; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 45.98 / 70.17; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 54.02 / 62.13 |
| range all methods | 17.12; 231.65 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → RB Global: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.