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Rayonier (RYN): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 7, 2026; rules v1.1
Rayonier (RYN): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe; 2 with insufficient data; 5 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Dividends of $292M exceeded operating cash flow of $257M in FY2025 (114%): the low net income ($480M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is.
Innocent reading: Capital returned after a disposal, as a one-off.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not applicable
a financial company: free cash flow after capex is not the measure of its business
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 2.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $11M |
| Revenue | $484M |
| SBC / revenue | +2.3% |
| Buybacks | $3M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 152.1M shares |
| Diluted shares | 158.7M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +4.3% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not applicable
a financial company: receivables and DSO are not its working capital
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$200M comes due within a year, 4.6× covered by cash and investments of $682M plus $241M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $682M |
| Debt | $2.1B |
| Net debt | $1.4B |
| Due within a year | $200M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $241M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $922M |
| Coverage of what is due | 4.6 |
| Due in the second year | 0 |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-03-31 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a financial company: J06 reads its cycle instead
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Dividends of $292M exceeded operating cash flow of $257M in FY2025 (114%): the low net income ($480M) is not the reason to worry, the cash is.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Net income | $480M |
| operating cash flow | $257M |
| dividends paid | $292M |
| capex | $22M |
| payout of net income | 0.61 |
| payout of ocf | 1.14 |
| payout of ocf after capex | 1.25 |
a REIT's net income is after depreciation of buildings that usually hold their value, so FFO / AFFO is the payout measure; here operating cash flow and operating cash flow after capex stand in for it (capex includes acquisitions of property where the filing lumps them)
Source: FY2025 (net income, operating cash flow, dividends and capex, fiscal year)
What would explain it innocently
- Capital returned after a disposal, as a one-off
- Timing of rent collections at year end
What to look for in the filing
- FFO and AFFO as the REIT reports them
- The maintenance capex the REIT discloses
- Debt maturities and undrawn facilities
What would show the trap does not apply
- FFO or AFFO per share covers the dividend after recurring capex, and operating cash flow catches up with the dividend in the next year
- The gap to operating cash flow is a disclosed one-off (a lease settlement, a timing difference) that reverses
Look again: next filing.
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Rayonier: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.