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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 6, 2026; rules v1.1
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $520M, from −$266M to $254M, but working capital released $60M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $423M: 93% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $37M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review · confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (24% against -38%) and DSO is 105 against a median of 60; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $520M, from −$266M to $254M, but working capital released $60M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $423M: 93% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $37M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $1.4B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.5B |
| Capex, year before | $1.7B |
| Capex | $1.3B |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$266M |
| Free cash flow | $254M |
| Change in FCF | $520M |
| Change in capex | −$423M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $60M |
| Of which: capex cut | $423M |
| Of which: working capital released | $60M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +92.9% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 36634000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.6% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $15M |
| Revenue | $2.5B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.6% |
| Buybacks | $57M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 3.7 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 101.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 99.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (24% against -38%) and DSO is 105 against a median of 60; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -37.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | +23.9% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +5.4% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -7.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 105.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 59.7 |
| Receivables | $414M |
| Revenue | $346M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Northern Oil & Gas: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.