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Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence high
Free cash flow rose $3M (+0%), from $658M to $661M, but working capital released $50M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $15M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 339.50 a share (price 115.80); 80% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 280.92 to 424.14; across every method the research ran the range is 2 to 1,461. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence high
Free cash flow rose $3M (+0%), from $658M to $661M, but working capital released $50M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $15M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $801M |
| Operating cash flow | $836M |
| Capex, year before | $143M |
| Capex | $175M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $658M |
| Free cash flow | $661M |
| Change in FCF | $3M |
| Change in capex | $32M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $50M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | $50M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +1666.7% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -15000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.9% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $27M |
| Revenue | $3.0B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.9% |
| Buybacks | $328M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 12.2 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 88.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 85.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -3.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 168% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 121%, and the quarter before 143% against 92%; days sales outstanding is 54 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +121.4% |
| Receivables, year over year | +168.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +92.4% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +142.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 53.8 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 43.5 |
| Receivables | $882M |
| Revenue | $1.5B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$5M comes due within a year, 265.6× covered by cash and investments of $497M plus $831M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $497M |
| Debt | $2.9B |
| Net debt | $2.4B |
| Due within a year | $5M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $831M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $1.3B |
| Coverage of what is due | 265.6 |
| Due in the second year | $405M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 41% and net income rose 39% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 1.2%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $1.63 |
| EPS | $2.30 |
| Net income, year before | $137M |
| Net income | $191M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 84.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 83.0M shares |
| EPS growth | +41.1% |
| Net income growth | +39.4% |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.2% |
| eps from profit | $0.64 |
| eps from share count | $0.03 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $583M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $623M, best $731M): the P/E of 16.5× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $9.6B |
| net income ttm | $583M |
| pe ttm | 16.50 |
| net income median fy | $623M |
| pe mid cycle | 15.40 |
| net income peak fy | $731M |
| years | FY2018 / 639.0; FY2019 / 604.0; FY2020 / 299.0; FY2021 / 442.0; FY2022 / 531.0; FY2023 / 673.0; FY2024 / 731.0; FY2025 / 623.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 339.50 a share (price 115.80); 80% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 280.92 to 424.14; across every method the research ran the range is 2 to 1,461. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 339.50 |
| price | 115.80 |
| terminal value share | +79.7% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 280.92 / 424.14; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 277.56 / 411.72; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 278.41 / 400.6; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 315.65 / 363.35 |
| range all methods | 1.96; 1461.35 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Allison Transmission Holdings: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.