Filing Flows › Companies › Ingram Micro Holding › Analysis traps
Ingram Micro Holding (INGM): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 26, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026; rules v1.1
Ingram Micro Holding (INGM): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 26, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $594M (+311%), from $191M to $785M, but working capital released $726M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $12M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $144M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 37.81 a share (price 24.44); 89% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -84.85 to 139.37; across every method the research ran the range is -6 to 226. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $594M (+311%), from $191M to $785M, but working capital released $726M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $12M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $144M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $334M |
| Operating cash flow | $916M |
| Capex, year before | $143M |
| Capex | $131M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $191M |
| Free cash flow | $785M |
| Change in FCF | $594M |
| Change in capex | −$12M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $726M |
| Of which: capex cut | $12M |
| Of which: working capital released | $726M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +124.3% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -144124000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $21M |
| Revenue | $52.6B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.0% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 224.7M shares |
| Diluted shares | 235.4M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +4.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 25% against revenue 21% in Q3 2026; DSO 66 against a median of 66: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +20.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | +25.4% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +13.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +16.7% |
| Days sales outstanding | 66.4 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 66.2 |
| Receivables | $11.5B |
| Revenue | $15.2B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 34% and net income rose 32% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 1.6%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.42 |
| EPS | $0.57 |
| Net income, year before | $99M |
| Net income | $131M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 235.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 231.8M shares |
| EPS growth | +34.1% |
| Net income growth | +31.8% |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.6% |
| eps from profit | $0.13 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
4 fiscal years of net income on file; a cycle needs five
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 37.81 a share (price 24.44); 89% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -84.85 to 139.37; across every method the research ran the range is -6 to 226. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 37.81 |
| price | 24.44 |
| terminal value share | +89.2% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / -84.85 / 139.37; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 23.93 / 51.69; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 25.46 / 50.16; WACC / ±1 pt / 29.08 / 50.42 |
| range all methods | -6.36; 226.03 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Ingram Micro Holding: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.