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Advance Auto Parts earnings quality score

How much of the reported profit is backed by cash, and how many markers of managed earnings the filings show

Score50 / 100 · grade C · rank 885 of 1027

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) scores 50 of 100 for earnings quality, grade C: rank 885 of 1027 companies and 130 of 141 in consumer-disc. It loses the most points on accruals of +0.8% of assets, higher than 90% of companies, Montier C-score 4 of 6 checks failed, adjusted earnings 52% below GAAP. It earns full or near-full marks for Beneish M-score -2.87: clean (below −2.22), Dechow F-score 0.83 (normal), profit about as variable as cash flow (smoothness 0.80).

What earned and lost points

ComponentWhat the filings showPointsOf
Accrualsaccruals of +0.8% of assets, higher than 90% of companies220
Beneish M-scoreBeneish M-score -2.87: clean (below −2.22)1515
Dechow F-scoreDechow F-score 0.83 (normal)1515
Montier C-scoreMontier C-score 4 of 6 checks failed515
Discretionary accrualsdiscretionary accruals of +6.6% of assets (modified Jones), larger than most210
Piotroski F-scorePiotroski F-score 5 of 9610
Non-GAAP gapadjusted earnings 52% below GAAP010
Earnings smoothnessprofit about as variable as cash flow (smoothness 0.80)55
AAP: share of the available points, by componentAAP: share of the available points, by componentAccruals10%Discretionary accruals24%Beneish M-score100%Dechow F-score100%Montier C-score33%Piotroski F-score56%Earnings smoothness100%

How the score is built

Eight published measures, each scored against the whole universe or on its own scale and weighted: accruals 20, discretionary accruals 10, Beneish M 15, Dechow F 15, Montier C 15, Piotroski F 10, the non-GAAP gap 10, smoothness 5. A measure that cannot be computed (Beneish for a bank, say) drops out and the rest is rescaled, so every company is scored on what applies to it.

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Computed from the companies’ own XBRL filings (latest fiscal year) by published formulas; a statistical screen, not an audit or an accusation. A low score means the reported profit shows more of the markers of managed or low-quality earnings than its peers. Not investment advice.