Filing Flows › ProFrac Holding (ACDC) › Takeover & LBO
Is ProFrac Holding (ACDC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.34 a share) would return a loss of about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $0.43 a share (−91% against today's $4.88). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $6.34 | today's $4.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 182.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $905M | |
| − Cash | $43.6M | |
| + Other claims | $127M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.1B | 12.6× EBITDA of $170M |
| Fees | $42.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $933M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.3B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.8B | $165M | $71.4M | −$51.0M | $984M |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $162M | $75.3M | −$55.2M | $1.0B |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $162M | $79.5M | −$59.5M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $1.8B | $165M | $84.1M | −$66.4M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $170M | $89.2M | −$73.7M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.9B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $635M | |
| Money multiple | 0.51× | on $1.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −12.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $4.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $0.43 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $5.37 | −9.9% |
| 20% | $5.86 | −11.4% |
| 30% | $6.34 | −12.7% |
| 40% | $6.83 | −13.9% |
| 50% | $7.32 | −15.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $170M | 9.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $393M | |
| Capital spending | $149M | |
| Debt | $905M | |
| Cash | $43.6M | |
| Share price | $4.88 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ProFrac Holding would cost about $6.47 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $5.86 | $1.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $6.47 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $7.41 | $1.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ProFrac Holding's latest quarter
ProFrac Holding, Q3 2026: revenue $511M (+27% year over year), operating margin -6.7%, net loss $74.0M, operating cash flow $51.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ProFrac Holding being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ProFrac Holding?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.34 a share) would return a loss of about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $0.43 a share (−91% against today's $4.88).
What would a takeover of ProFrac Holding cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ProFrac Holding would cost about $6.47 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.