Filing Flows › ACI Worldwide (ACIW) › Takeover & LBO
Is ACI Worldwide (ACIW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($73.24 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.97 a share (−34% against today's $56.34). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $73.24 | today's $56.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 101.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $817M | |
| − Cash | $219M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.0B | 22.3× EBITDA of $359M |
| Fees | $160M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.2B | 76% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.8B | $366M | $151M | $161M | $1.8B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $374M | $139M | $175M | $1.6B |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $383M | $125M | $191M | $1.4B |
| Year 4 | $1.9B | $394M | $111M | $209M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $2.0B | $405M | $94.7M | $229M | $1.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.1B | |
| − Debt left | $1.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $6.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $56.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $36.97 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $61.97 | 3.9% |
| 20% | $67.61 | 1.7% |
| 30% | $73.24 | −0.3% |
| 40% | $78.88 | −2.1% |
| 50% | $84.51 | −3.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $359M | 20.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $95.6M | |
| Capital spending | $17.8M | |
| Debt | $817M | |
| Cash | $219M | |
| Share price | $56.34 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ACI Worldwide would cost about $73.24 a share, $7.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $63.10 | $6.4B |
| Median | 30% | $73.24 | $7.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $73.81 | $7.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ACI Worldwide's latest quarter
ACI Worldwide, Q3 2026: revenue $427M (-12% year over year), operating margin 12.3%, net earnings $32.5M, operating cash flow $119M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ACI Worldwide being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ACI Worldwide?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($73.24 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.97 a share (−34% against today's $56.34).
What would a takeover of ACI Worldwide cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ACI Worldwide would cost about $73.24 a share, $7.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.