Filing Flows › Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($149.64 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.78× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-02): Axcelis Technologies and Veeco Instruments Provide Update on Expected Timing of Merger Closing.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $149.64 | today's $115.11 plus 30% |
| × shares | 31.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $402M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.3B | 39.8× EBITDA of $107M |
| Fees | $85.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $589M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.8B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $840M | $104M | $45.1M | $42.3M | $547M |
| Year 2 | $827M | $102M | $41.8M | $43.8M | $503M |
| Year 3 | $827M | $102M | $38.5M | $46.6M | $456M |
| Year 4 | $840M | $104M | $34.9M | $49.5M | $407M |
| Year 5 | $865M | $107M | $31.1M | $53.7M | $353M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 29.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.2B | |
| − Debt left | $353M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.75× | on $3.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −5.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $115.11.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $126.62 | −1.3% |
| 20% | $138.13 | −3.6% |
| 30% | $149.64 | −5.5% |
| 40% | $161.15 | −7.3% |
| 50% | $172.66 | −8.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $866M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $107M | 12.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $17.7M | |
| Capital spending | $9.7M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $402M | |
| Share price | $115.11 | on Oct 15, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Axcelis Technologies would cost about $161.15 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $132.03 | $4.1B |
| Median | 40% | $161.15 | $5.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $184.41 | $5.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.78× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-02 · 8-K deal · Axcelis Technologies and Veeco Instruments Provide Update on Expected Timing of Merger Closing
Axcelis Technologies' latest quarter
Axcelis Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $238M (+11% year over year), operating margin 11.5%, net earnings $37.8M, operating cash flow $40.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Axcelis Technologies being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-02: Axcelis Technologies and Veeco Instruments Provide Update on Expected Timing of Merger Closing. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Axcelis Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($149.64 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Axcelis Technologies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Axcelis Technologies would cost about $161.15 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.