Filing Flows › AECOM (ACM) › Takeover & LBO
Is AECOM (ACM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($86.74 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.97 a share (−43% against today's $66.72). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $86.74 | today's $66.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 128.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $11.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.7B | |
| − Cash | $1.0B | |
| + Other claims | $206M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $13.1B | 18.3× EBITDA of $713M |
| Fees | $261M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $9.4B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $14.9B | $691M | $300M | $176M | $3.7B |
| Year 2 | $14.7B | $681M | $286M | $180M | $3.6B |
| Year 3 | $14.7B | $681M | $273M | $192M | $3.4B |
| Year 4 | $14.9B | $691M | $258M | $188M | $3.2B |
| Year 5 | $15.4B | $712M | $244M | $189M | $3.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.5B | |
| − Debt left | $3.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.80× | on $9.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −4.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $66.72; the IRR reaches 20% at $37.97 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $73.39 | −0.5% |
| 20% | $80.06 | −2.6% |
| 30% | $86.74 | −4.5% |
| 40% | $93.41 | −6.2% |
| 50% | $100.08 | −7.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $15.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $713M | 4.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $81.4M | |
| Capital spending | $162M | |
| Debt | $2.7B | |
| Cash | $1.0B | |
| Share price | $66.72 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AECOM would cost about $93.41 a share, $12.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $76.53 | $9.8B |
| Median | 40% | $93.41 | $12.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $106.89 | $13.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AECOM's latest quarter
AECOM, Q4 FY25: revenue $4.2B (+2% year over year), operating margin 5.7%, net earnings $120M, operating cash flow $196M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AECOM being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AECOM?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($86.74 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.97 a share (−43% against today's $66.72).
What would a takeover of AECOM cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AECOM would cost about $93.41 a share, $12.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.