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ACM Research (ACMR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 6, 2026; rules v1.1
ACM Research (ACMR): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: stock compensation added back = no economic cost. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered · severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $34M, 3.7% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $7M (0.2× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.6%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
Innocent reading: A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows.
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $169M is at a high against a median of $39M over eight years; at 19.4× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (83.7×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 28.36 a share (price 44.61); 84% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 20.88 to 35.84; across every method the research ran the range is -2 to 159. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($70M → −$67M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $152M |
| Operating cash flow | −$10M |
| Capex, year before | $82M |
| Capex | $56M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $70M |
| Free cash flow | −$67M |
| Change in FCF | −$137M |
| Change in capex | −$26M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$132M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $34M, 3.7% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $7M (0.2× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 1.6%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $34M |
| Revenue | $901M |
| SBC / revenue | +3.7% |
| Buybacks | $7M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.2 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 66.2M shares |
| Diluted shares | 67.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.6% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
What would explain it innocently
- A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows
- Buybacks at prices below intrinsic value make up for the dilution over time
- A one-off grant (an acquisition, a founder award) rather than a steady level
What to look for in the filing
- The share count after the latest buybacks (the next 10-Q's cover)
- The price paid for the buybacks against the shares' value
- Unvested awards outstanding
What would show the trap does not apply
- The diluted share count falls over two years with buybacks at least equal to the stock compensation
- Stock compensation falls as a share of revenue in each of the next two years
Look again: next filing.
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 48% against revenue 37% in Q3 2026; DSO 156 against a median of 174: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +36.6% |
| Receivables, year over year | +47.7% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +36.0% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +24.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 155.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 173.6 |
| Receivables | $705M |
| Revenue | $368M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$35M comes due within a year, 27.1× covered by cash and investments of $952M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $952M |
| Debt | $343M |
| Net debt | −$609M |
| Due within a year | $35M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$199M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $952M |
| Coverage of what is due | 27.1 |
| Due in the second year | $102M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 96% and net income fell 96% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 7.6%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.53 |
| EPS | $0.02 |
| Net income, year before | $36M |
| Net income | $2M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 68.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 73.6M shares |
| EPS growth | -96.0% |
| Net income growth | -95.7% |
| Diluted shares: change | +7.6% |
| eps from profit | -$0.50 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $169M is at a high against a median of $39M over eight years; at 19.4× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (83.7×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.3B |
| net income ttm | $169M |
| pe ttm | 19.40 |
| net income median fy | $39M |
| pe mid cycle | 83.70 |
| net income peak fy | $104M |
| years | FY2018 / 7.0; FY2019 / 19.0; FY2020 / 19.0; FY2021 / 38.0; FY2022 / 39.0; FY2023 / 77.0; FY2024 / 104.0; FY2025 / 94.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 28.36 a share (price 44.61); 84% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 20.88 to 35.84; across every method the research ran the range is -2 to 159. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 28.36 |
| price | 44.61 |
| terminal value share | +83.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 20.88 / 35.84; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 23.49 / 34.1; WACC / ±1 pt / 24.94 / 32.69; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 26.28 / 30.44 |
| range all methods | -1.81; 159.0 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → ACM Research: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.