Filing Flows › Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.55 a share) would return a loss of about 18% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 15.1× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $15.55 | today's $11.96 plus 30% |
| × shares | 125.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $967M | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.9B | 45.6× EBITDA of $63.9M |
| Fees | $58.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $351M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.6B | 88% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.0B | $61.9M | $26.9M | −$196M | $548M |
| Year 2 | $1.0B | $61.0M | $41.9M | −$209M | $757M |
| Year 3 | $1.0B | $61.0M | $57.9M | −$225M | $982M |
| Year 4 | $1.0B | $61.9M | $75.1M | −$246M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $1.1B | $63.8M | $93.9M | −$272M | $1.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 38.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.5B | |
| − Debt left | $1.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $959M | |
| Money multiple | 0.37× | on $2.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −18.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.96.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $13.16 | −16.1% |
| 20% | $14.35 | −17.2% |
| 30% | $15.55 | −18.2% |
| 40% | $16.74 | −19.1% |
| 50% | $17.94 | −20.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $63.9M | 5.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $174M | |
| Capital spending | $239M | |
| Debt | $967M | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $11.96 | on Oct 12, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atlas Energy Solutions would cost about $15.85 a share, $2.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $14.35 | $1.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.85 | $2.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $18.16 | $2.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Atlas Energy Solutions' latest quarter
Atlas Energy Solutions, Q3 2026: revenue $268M (+3% year over year), operating margin -14.9%, net loss $45.1M, operating cash flow $23.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Atlas Energy Solutions being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Atlas Energy Solutions?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.55 a share) would return a loss of about 18% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 15.1× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Atlas Energy Solutions cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atlas Energy Solutions would cost about $15.85 a share, $2.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.