Filing Flows › Agco (AGCO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Agco (AGCO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($143.23 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $78.84 a share (−28% against today's $110.18). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $143.23 | today's $110.18 plus 30% |
| × shares | 69.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.6B | |
| − Cash | $415M | |
| = Enterprise value | $12.1B | 13.4× EBITDA of $904M |
| Fees | $243M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.4B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.2B | $912M | $381M | $212M | $4.8B |
| Year 2 | $10.4B | $925M | $364M | $225M | $4.5B |
| Year 3 | $10.6B | $943M | $347M | $241M | $4.3B |
| Year 4 | $10.8B | $966M | $329M | $260M | $4.0B |
| Year 5 | $11.1B | $995M | $309M | $283M | $3.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.8B | |
| − Debt left | $3.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.95× | on $7.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $110.18; the IRR reaches 20% at $78.84 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $121.20 | 3.9% |
| 20% | $132.22 | 1.3% |
| 30% | $143.23 | −0.9% |
| 40% | $154.25 | −2.9% |
| 50% | $165.27 | −4.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $10.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $904M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $336M | |
| Capital spending | $251M | |
| Debt | $2.6B | |
| Cash | $415M | |
| Share price | $110.18 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Agco would cost about $154.25 a share, $10.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $126.38 | $8.8B |
| Median | 40% | $154.25 | $10.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $176.51 | $12.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Agco's latest quarter
Agco, Q3 2026: revenue $2.3B (-9% year over year), operating margin 5.1%, net earnings $51.7M, operating cash flow $26.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Agco being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Agco?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($143.23 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $78.84 a share (−28% against today's $110.18).
What would a takeover of Agco cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Agco would cost about $154.25 a share, $10.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.