Filing Flows › Albemarle (ALB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Albemarle (ALB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($128.93 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.26 a share (−17% against today's $99.18). Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $128.93 | today's $99.18 plus 30% |
| × shares | 118.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $15.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $1.8B | |
| + Other claims | $2.5B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $17.8B | 14.1× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $357M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.2B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.6B | $1.4B | $531M | $304M | $6.6B |
| Year 2 | $7.1B | $1.5B | $508M | $374M | $6.3B |
| Year 3 | $7.5B | $1.5B | $480M | $442M | $5.8B |
| Year 4 | $7.8B | $1.6B | $446M | $508M | $5.3B |
| Year 5 | $8.0B | $1.6B | $407M | $569M | $4.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.7B | |
| − Debt left | $4.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $13.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.24× | on $11.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $99.18; the IRR reaches 20% at $82.26 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $109.10 | 9.5% |
| 20% | $119.02 | 6.8% |
| 30% | $128.93 | 4.4% |
| 40% | $138.85 | 2.3% |
| 50% | $148.77 | 0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 20.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $646M | |
| Capital spending | $406M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $1.8B | |
| Share price | $99.18 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Albemarle would cost about $131.41 a share, $15.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $119.02 | $14.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $131.41 | $15.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $150.56 | $17.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Albemarle's latest quarter
Albemarle, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+19% year over year), operating margin 9.5%, net earnings $297M, operating cash flow $406M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Albemarle being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Albemarle?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($128.93 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.26 a share (−17% against today's $99.18).
What would a takeover of Albemarle cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Albemarle would cost about $131.41 a share, $15.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.