Filing Flows › Align Technology (ALGN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Align Technology (ALGN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($194.86 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $194.86 | today's $149.89 plus 30% |
| × shares | 71.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $1.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $12.7B | 14.8× EBITDA of $859M |
| Fees | $254M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.2B | 64% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.3B | $897M | $361M | $295M | $4.4B |
| Year 2 | $4.5B | $933M | $339M | $337M | $4.1B |
| Year 3 | $4.7B | $968M | $313M | $380M | $3.7B |
| Year 4 | $4.8B | $1.0B | $284M | $425M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $5.0B | $1.0B | $251M | $471M | $2.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.4B | |
| − Debt left | $2.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $8.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $149.89.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $164.88 | 7.2% |
| 20% | $179.87 | 3.8% |
| 30% | $194.86 | 0.9% |
| 40% | $209.85 | −1.6% |
| 50% | $224.83 | −3.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $859M | 20.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $238M | |
| Capital spending | $147M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $1.1B | |
| Share price | $149.89 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Align Technology would cost about $202.35 a share, $14.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $182.87 | $13.0B |
| Median | 35% | $202.35 | $14.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $217.34 | $15.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Align Technology's latest quarter
Align Technology, Q3 2026: revenue $1.0B (+2% year over year), operating margin 16.7%, net earnings $135M, operating cash flow $183M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Align Technology being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Align Technology?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($194.86 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Align Technology cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Align Technology would cost about $202.35 a share, $14.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.